Yes, it will be busy this weekend. The lady who came to my ticket window this morning at 9am reported (after she rolled her eyes at me in a "FINALLY!" sort of way) that she had been waiting in line for an entire 15 minutes. I didn't have the heart to tell her that that would be the shortest line she'd be in all day.
The only thing with the 4th is it is the last day of Christmas at the resort and Sunday is the first day that Cast Members can use their Main Gate Passes after being blocked out for the past couple of weeks. So I hope that whoever goes, that you have a wonderful time!
I just wrote a Trip Report about this... It was packed!! All the good rides were 60 - 80 minute waits on New Year's Day. The Fantasyland rides were all 60 minute waits. It was really packed! The only things with short waits were Star Tours (20 minutes at one lucky point) and Jungle Cruise (10 minutes). Your only hope is fastpass.
I am a rabid Disney fan. Possible future Imagineer (already designing rides for it)... I've only been to Disneyland. I'm hoping to go to Disney World this summer for the first time, and TDR might be possible in 3 years.
First DL trip - 1997
First WDW trip - N/A
# of Times I've Been on Tower of Terror (DCA): 68
# of Times I've Been on Finding Nemo Subs:
Argonaut - 1
Sea Farer - 1
Just got back (Friday evening). Yep - it was packed:
Didn't someone say in the past that after the 1st, it's been "virtually empty"? Oh well, I was glad we went. We got our AP's after over an hour wait, and... let's just say it was an excellent day for people watching!
I went to the park yesterday it was very packed and busy even at DCA.
During the morning at DL it was light, but after 10 a.m. it became very busy. Even at DCA Monsters, Inc was up to 45 minutes. Screamin' and Soarin', GRR, TOT and TSMM (no single rider available all day) were over 40. Most of the day I was over at DCA. Single rider and fastpass did really help since I go on over 25 rides on New Year Day.
At DL highest I seen the stand by lines:
Star Tours 30
Peter Pan 60
Mad Tea Party 20
Snow White 20
I've been biking around the Disneyland area about 1hr a day for the past two weeks and since Christmas, almost all of the parking areas are really packed. Also, the "after-fireworks crowd" is always overflowing and sometimes drive me nuts when I'm returning home because they don't know where to get on the freeway and such. :P So I can pretty much guess that, yes, the parks are busy right now.