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    Most overvalued housing markets
    Latest analysis of 299 markets: See how your hometown ranks.
    December 29, 2005: 1:01 PM EST
    By Les Christie, staff writer

    NEW YORK ( - Sixty-five of the nation's 299 biggest real estate markets are severely overpriced and subject to possible price corrections.
    That's according to the latest (third quarter) Housing Market Analysis conducted by National City Corp, a financial holding company, in conjunction with Global Insight, a financial information provider.
    The report named Naples, Florida as the most overvalued of all housing markets in the United States. A single-family, median-priced home there sells for $329,970, 84 percent more than what it should cost -- $180,956 -- according to the analysis.
    National City arrives at its estimates of what the typical house in these markets should cost by examining the town's population densities, local interest rates, and income levels. It also factors in historical premiums and discounts for each area.
    Other markets deemed wildly overpriced included Merced, California (by 77 percent), Salinas, California (75 percent), and Port St. Lucie, Florida (72 percent).
    Undervalued markets were College Station (-23 percent), El Paso (-18 percent), and Killeen (-16 percent), all in Texas. That state dominated the discounted markets list with nine of the 10 most undervalued housing markets. Montgomery, Alabama was No. 8 among the undervalued markets.
    The data did produce some evidence of prices moderating, according to National City's chief economist, Richard DeKaser.
    In Massachusetts, for example, one of the hottest of housing markets over the past few years, each of the seven housing markets analyzed was still overvalued. Prices, however, had fallen in all seven. That would indicate the state is trending back toward normal valuations.
    The same could not be said of Florida. The Sunshine State had 15 different markets on the list of extremely overpriced metro areas and all 15 had grown more overpriced during the quarter.
    Amidst all these hot and cold markets there were a few judged, like Goldilock's porridge, "just right." They included Albuquerque New Mexico, Dayton Ohio, and Omaha Nebraska. In all those towns actually selling prices closely tracked the expected values.

    Metro area% over/under-valued
    Naples, FL+84%
    Merced, CA+77%
    Salinas, CA+75%
    Port St. Lucie, FL+72%
    Stockton, CA+72%
    Madera, CA+70%, Santa Barbara, CA+70%,
    Modesto, CA+67%Napa,
    CA+65%Riverside, CA+65%
    Medford, OR+64%
    Sacramento, CA+61%
    Atlantic City, NJ+59%Chico, CA+59%
    Fresno, CA+58%
    West Palm Beach, FL+57%
    Redding, CA+56%Santa Rosa, CA+56%Bend, OR+56%Sarasota, FL+56%
    Miami, FL+55%Oxnard, CA+55%
    Vero Beach, FL+54%Los Angeles, CA+54%
    Fort Lauderdale, FL+53%Vallejo, CA+53%San Luis Obispo, CA+53%
    Cape Coral, FL+52%
    Bakersfield, CA+51%
    Palm Bay, FL+49%
    Barnstable Town, MA+48%
    Oakland, CA+47%Ocean City, NJ+47%
    Prescott, AZ+46%Panama City, FL+46%San Diego, CA+46%
    Visalia, CA+45%
    San Jose, CA+44%Deltona, FL+44%Santa Cruz, CA+44%Santa Ana, CA+44%
    Bellingham, WA+43%Fort Walton Beach, FL+43%Nassau-Suffolk, NY+43%
    Poughkeepsie, NY+39%
    Reno, NV+38%Las Vegas, NV+38%Kingston, NY+38%
    Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV</SPAN>+37%
    Bethesda, MD+36%
    Providence, RI-MA+35%San Francisco, CA+35%St. George, UT+35%Ocala, FL+35%Phoenix, AZ+35%Portland, OR-WA+35%Eugene, OR+34%Tampa, FL+34%
    Pensacola, FL+33%Orlando, FL+33%
    Grand Junction, CO+31%
    Honolulu, HI+31%Edison, NJ+31%Duluth, MN-WI+31%Jacksonville, FL+31%
    Virginia Beach, VA-NC+29%Worcester, MA+29%Portland, ME+29%Flagstaff, AZ+29%
    Essex County, MA+28%Baltimore, MD+28%Charlottesville, VA+28%Charleston, WV+28%
    Tucson, AZ+27%Newark, NJ-PA+27%New York, NY-NJ+27%
    Monroe, MI+26%Bay City, MI+26%Flint, MI+26%Olympia, WA+26%
    Wilmington, NC+25%Tacoma, WA+25%Salem, OR+25%
    Minneapolis, MN-WI+24%Asheville, NC+24%Seattle, WA+24%Mount Vernon, WA+24%Jackson, MI+24%Longview, WA+24%Lakeland, FL+23%Brunswick, GA+23%Gainesville, FL+23%Manchester, NH+23%
    Bremerton, WA+22%Tallahassee, FL+22%Holland, MI+22%
    Niles, MI+21%Savannah, GA+21%Santa Fe, NM+21%Chicago, IL+21%

    Metro area% over/under-valued

    Eau Claire, WI+20%Vineland, NJ+20%Trenton, NJ+20%Rockingham, NH+20%Anchorage, AK+20%Casper, WY+20%Racine, WI+20%Battle Creek, MI+20%
    Springfield, MA+19%Detroit, MI+19%Greeley, CO+19%
    Burlington, VT+18% Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ+18%Camden, NJ+18%Boston, MA+18%Lansing, MI+18%Boulder, CO+18%
    Michigan City, IN+17%Ann Arbor, MI+17%York, PA+17%
    Milwaukee, WI+16%Madison, WI+16%
    Philadelphia, PA+15%Spokane, WA+15%Warren, MI+15%Norwich, CT+15%Richmond, VA+15%
    Corvallis, OR+14%Grand Rapids, MI+14%Muskegon, MI+14%Lake-Kenosha, IL-WI+14%
    Albany, NY+13%Allentown, PA-NJ+13%Saginaw, MI+13%Harrisonburg, VA+13%La Crosse, WI-MN+13%Boise City, ID+13%Pittsfield, MA+13%Wenatchee, WA+13%Rockford, IL+13%Farmington, NM+13%
    Cambridge, MA+12%New Orleans, LA+12%
    Janesville, WI+11%New Haven, CT+11%Gainesville, GA+11%Kalamazoo, MI+11%Roanoke, VA+11%Fayetteville, AR-MO+11%Canton, OH+11%
    Lancaster, PA+10%Colorado Springs, CO+10%Denver, CO+10%Peoria, IL+10%Reading, PA+10%Fort Collins, CO+10%
    Waterloo, IA+9%Gary, IN+9%St. Louis, MO-IL+9%Champaign, IL+9%Yakima, WA+9%Dalton, GA+9%Sheboygan, WI+9%Toledo, OH+9%Green Bay, WI+8%Springfield, OH+8%Youngstown, OH-PA+8%Lynchburg, VA+8%
    Davenport, IA-IL+7%St. Joseph, MO-KS+7%Mansfield, OH+7%Hickory,
    NC+6%Fond du Lac, WI+6%Cleveland, OH+6%Bridgeport, CT+6%
    Billings, MT+5%Chattanooga, TN-GA+5%Idaho Falls, ID+5%Cheyenne, WY+5%Pueblo, CO+5%
    Dubuque, IA+4%Topeka, KS+4%Hartford, CT+4%Kansas City, MO-KS+4%Akron, OH+4%Wausau, WI+4%Salt Lake City, UT+4%Scranton, PA+4%Lexington, KY+4%Bismarck, ND+4%
    Athens, GA+3%Fargo, ND-MN+3%Sandusky, OH+3%Knoxville, TN+3%Bloomington, IN+3%Anderson, IN+3%Lafayette, LA+3%Louisville, KY-IN+3%Durham, NC+2%Atlanta, GA+2%

    Metro area% over/under-valued
    Erie, PA+2%Columbia, MO+2%Columbus, OH+2%Harrisburg, PA+2%Kennewick, WA+2%Provo, UT+2%
    Lima, OH+1%Utica, NY+1%Bowling Green, KY+1%Hattiesburg, MS+1%Decatur, IL+1%Columbia, SC+1%Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN+1%
    Rochester, MN0%Greenville, SC0%Oshkosh, WI0%Lawrence, KS0%Las Cruces, NM0%Omaha, NE-IA0%Appleton, WI0%Albuquerque, NM0%Burlington, NC0%Ogden, UT0%Baton Rouge, LA0%Dayton, OH0%Amarillo, TX0%Alexandria, LA0%
    Kokomo, IN-1%Nashville, TN-1%Winston-Salem, NC-1%Spartanburg, SC-1%Florence, SC-1%Birmingham, AL-1%Sherman, TX-1%Jackson, MS-1%Houma, LA-1%Pittsburgh, PA-1%Binghamton, NY-1%Monroe, LA-2%
    Columbus, GA-AL-2%Sioux Falls, SD-2%Des Moines, IA-2%Columbus, IN-2%Lincoln, NE-2%Mobile, AL-2%Greensboro, NC-2%Albany, GA-2%Augusta, GA-SC-2%
    Raleigh, NC-3%Owensboro, KY-3%Evansville, IN-KY-3%Bloomington, IL-3%Shreveport, LA-3%Cedar Rapids, IA-3%
    Greenville, NC-4%Syracuse, NY-4%South Bend, IN-MI-4%
    Indianapolis, IN-5%Springfield, IL-5%Rocky Mount, NC-5%Oklahoma City, OK-5%Jefferson City, MO-5%Buffalo, NY-5%Fort Wayne, IN-5%
    Charlotte, NC-SC-6%Warner Robins, GA-6%Iowa City, IA-6%Decatur, AL-6%Wichita, KS-6%Little Rock, AR-6%Macon, GA-6%Springfield, MO-6%Elkhart, IN-6%
    Waco, TX-7%Charleston, SC-7%Midland, TX-7%Austin, TX-7%Lubbock, TX-7%Tyler, TX-7%
    Corpus Christi, TX-8%Fort Smith, AR-OK-8%
    Tulsa, OK-9%Memphis, TN-MS-AR-9%Rochester, NY-9%
    San Angelo, TX-10%Lafayette, IN-10%
    Abilene, TX-11%San Antonio, TX-11%Huntsville, AL-11%Longview, TX-11%
    Odessa, TX-12%Montgomery, AL-12%
    Houston, TX-14%
    Fort Worth, TX-15%Beaumont,TX-15%
    Dallas,TX-16% Killeen, TX-16%
    El Paso, TX-18%
    College Station, TX-23%
    Last edited by Where's Barbie?; 12-30-2005, 07:35 PM.
    aka Sara

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    One of my children
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  • #2
    Re: Most overvalued housing markets

    Thanks Thats crazy


    • #3
      Re: Most overvalued housing markets

      That's it, I'm moving to Dayton, OH.



      • #4
        Re: Most overvalued housing markets

        Sad how many of those over priced places are in California....

        Help me get more security in Pingvinivlle! Click here!

        Originally posted by AGhostFromThePast
        all you need to know about the mommy stick is.. out of all the bad things that could happen to you... it's right between wetting yourself and death.


        • #5
          Re: Most overvalued housing markets

          Originally posted by penguinsoda
          Sad how many of those over priced places are in California....
          I already knew there would be some Florida cities on that list. Housing here is ridiculous.



          • #6
            Re: Most overvalued housing markets

            i'm hoping those "price corrections" happen around here very soon or else i'll never be able to buy a house! :greedy:


            • #7
              Re: Most overvalued housing markets

              You know San Francisco's up there... bah... you know it's bad when you pay 1,000 a month for a one room apartment almost in Daly City :/

              "Back off, Lilo... he's all mine!"
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              • #8
                Re: Most overvalued housing markets

                Not surprising. Some of the prices for houses in the "ghetto" is INASANE around here!
                "Tonight I wash my hands of you
                You set the bar I could not live up to
                Tonight the light is breaking through
                So thank you very little and send me postcards from hell"


                • #9
                  Re: Most overvalued housing markets

                  I work in real estate appraisals. I'd say about half the order we get, the estimated value the borrower gives the lender is way too high. So 9 times out of 10 there ends up being issues and another half of those end up being cancelled as a result.

                  I'm going to need to pass that article on to my co-workers.


                  • #10
                    Re: Most overvalued housing markets

                    +72% for Stockton, YIKES! The problem here is all the higher income people from the SF bay area snapping up homes here because they are "cheaper". Then they bring I205 to a standstill every day commuting to their jobs.
                    Have bicycle, will ride. Finished 2012 with 10,089 miles, 683 hours, and 482,000 feet of elevation gain.
                    2013: 201 rides, 8171 miles, 544 hours, 480K feet.
                    2014 so far: 7846 miles, 451,000 feet


                    • #11
                      Re: Most overvalued housing markets

                      Originally posted by Trekkie Dad
                      +72% for Stockton, YIKES! The problem here is all the higher income people from the SF bay area snapping up homes here because they are "cheaper". Then they bring I205 to a standstill every day commuting to their jobs.

                      Yeah, while driving their leased Beemer's and Mercedes'...

                      Their resale value dropping with every mile.


                      • #12
                        Re: Most overvalued housing markets

                        um hmmm..yep...totallly agree..i'm near the Salinas area...& my sister's house..built in the late 70's..nothing special/quite ordinary home... one just 3/4 of an acre just went for ONE MILLION DOLLARS!!!!
                        she darn near choked when i called her in Tennessee to tell her!
                        when they sold it in the late 80's it went for 180 thou!


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