Enough arm-chair imagineering... You're president of DLR.

[dshimel]

Today you've just been told that you are being promoted to president of DLR.

1) Disneyland Resort is grossing $600 million a year at the gate off 18 million visitation. You can break these visitations into 3 roughly equal-sized groups.

(visitation: unique person visiting either or both parks per day.... Visiting multiple parks or multiple times on the same day is 1 visitation.)

a) 6 million visitations by 600,000 APs (averaing 10 visits each) at an average of $175 each for the AP = $105 million annual revenue
b) 6 million visitations by 4 million non-AP "out-of-towners" averaging 1.5 days each and spending $50 per person per day on tickets = $300 million.
c) 6 million visitations a year by local, non-AP using a variety of off-season (2-for-1) and other discounts they average $32.50 per person per day = $195 million.

(Where these numbers come from... 18 million visitations is aproximation from Amusement Business. $600 million annual revenue is gustimation based on $2 billion domestic gate revenue (as reported in 2003,2004 annual reports) multiplied by DLR pulling ~30% of domestic park total attendance. AP number is from many sources including Al and Marcie. Non-local is based on widely reported 2/3-locals, 1/3 non-locals numbers from DCA construction time-frame. Remaining number is simply what is left....)



On top of the $600 million gate revenue, you're grossing another $600 million revenue on merchandise and food.
$25 per AP per visit = $150 million.
$40 per non-local per visit = $240 million
$35 per non-AP local per visit = $210 million

(Where these numbers come from... $600 million from annual reports that show ticket and in-park sales are roughly equal. Per guest break-down... mostly guess, with a need for 18 million visitations to generate $600 million... means about $33 each with APs below this, locals near this level and non-locals above this level.)


In addition, you're making another $120 million a year on the 2000 DLR hotel rooms.

(Where this number comes from 2000 rooms * 365 days * .87 occupancy * $200 a night.)

And $120 million on DTD leases. (a number plucked out of thin air....)


To counter this $1,440 million in annual revenue, you have $1,240 million in operating costs.
(This number comes from parks and resorts as a whole having 14% operating margin)

These break down to: (pure guestimation)
$40 million for hotel operations. ($50 per room per day)
$40 million for DTD operations (thin air)
$300 million for food and merchandise (50% margin)
$600 million in park operation (maintenance, custodial, attraction operation, tram service, utilities, insurance, etc) costs
$160 million in management including TDA, corporate governance, property taxes, benifits to retirees, etc
$100 million advertising




Because of the $200 million in operations positive cash flow(revenue - costs), your capital budget is limited to $150 million a year. Out of this amount of money, you have to cover refurbs of older rides (running you about $75 million a year) and the construction of new attractions.


The top complaints of your guests:
#1 Way too crowded during summer and holiday (when the bulk of you non-locals visit)
#2 Too expensive. Tickets are too expensive. Merchandise is too expensive. Food is too expensive. Hotel rooms are too expensive. Shops in DTD are too expensive. Parking is too expensive.
#3 Not enough good rides at DCA
#4 DL has not had a major new ride in 10 years.
#5 Maintenance sucks and your operations employees do not have the positive attitude of prior days that made Disney magical.**


** Here's the rub... Your park looks good right now, because you got an extra $150 million in capital from the 50th anniversary budget to fix it up. Next year's revenue are expected to rise by enough to cover that extra capital investment. However, the $600 million you have budgeted for park operations will just match the level of spending from 1995-2003 when guests were complaining loudly about poor maintenance.


Now, the task....
Corporate is demanding you increase the operational margins from 14% to 20%. Expected revenue from the 50th will cover the 2005 fiscal year, but you're asked for a 2006 budget.

You have to cut ~$90 million in costs (below the 2002 budget) or increase revenues $360 million with 25% margin on those increased revenues or some combination of the two.


What do you do?

Try to keep the plans at least semi-realistic and logical... Example: raising prices sharply will drive away attendance, lowering operations budgets but also dropping merchandise, hotel and DTD revenues. Dropping prices will bring more guests, but will lower per guest spending, increase operations budgets and make the overcrowding problem worse. Building new E-Tickets is nice, but eats up all your capital budget, increases operational costs, and makes the overcrowding worse (unless built in DCA where overcrowding is less of a problem except during 2-for-1 when you're giving the park away).

[TinkPink]

Oy. Too many numbers....can't take it... brain implosion...

[dramaqueen]

wow- maybe we need business 101 before we can answer this question

[Cuzco-topia]

This takes me back to all my marketing classes...I wish i paid more attention...

[dshimel]

wow- maybe we need business 101 before we can answer this question

Not Nearly as much fun as "dreaming up new rides" or "plans for the 3rd gate"..... but may make some realize why things are being done the way they are being done.

AND, this is more like a MBA level problem than a business 101 level problem.

[Gwyren]

Hopefully I can find some time to work this over. Dang school project work!

[dramaqueen]

Eh- that's why we have CM Matt!!! And that's why we love him soooo much- he figures all that stuff out so we can enjoy the park!

[SilentBob66]

Why will decreasing prices lower spending per guest? If I'm paying, say, $20 to $25 tops for tickets, that means I have more left over for souvenirs, food, etc., right? If ticket prices were rolled back to 1975 levels (less than $10 per guest), even if just for a select number of days per month, each guest would have even more disposable cash available to spend in the Park. OK, so it'll likely cause overcrowding (not if you're watching the gates, though, and turning people away once you've reached capacity), but your stores and food services will be raking it in.

Think about it for a brief moment - Walmart didn't get to be the retail king by inflating prices.

Another thing - corporate is demanding way too much. Corporate will always demand way too much, because the investors will always demand way too much. That's why WDC needs to enact a stock buyback and take the company private again, and sell off ABC/ESPN as part of it. This malarkey about "increasing shareholder value" is destroying the company and making it less and less unique. If I wanted to go to Corporate Amusement Park presented by Megacorp and buy their Corporate Souvenirs and ride their Corporate Rides, I'd go to Six Flags. They don't have a creative legacy to uphold. Disney does.

By the way, Walt wasn't an MBA, neither was his brother Roy, but somehow they always seemed to make money hand over fist in theme parks, film, and television. Dick Nunis had a Master's in Education, no MBA there. He did pretty damn well too.

So half the problem is this notion of having to "answer to corporate". The other half is that corporate is being greedy in wanting a 6% increase in operational margins. Satisfying shareholders at the expense of pleasing Park guests is something only a loser would do.

[NWRREngineer]

Uh... I cower in the corner and suck my thumb?

[ah schucks]

Not Nearly as much fun as "dreaming up new rides" or "plans for the 3rd gate"..... but may make some realize why things are being done the way they are being done.

AND, this is more like a MBA level problem than a business 101 level problem.

I swear "MBA level" will be our catch phrase! Do you know what mine is? If you dream it they will come. You don't see Roy Disney's statue in the middle of Main Street, you see Walt. Walt was a dreamer and a perfectionist and money was not the force that would stop his dreams.

Tell ya what since I love to dream I'll play Walt and you can play Roy, but don't forget, that Roy supported his brother's vision because he knew that artists could not be constrained by economics. So what do you say brother, can we dream it?

[Wotan]

Well, let's remember, Walt may not have had an MBA, and Roy may have, but they were also gambling (to a large extent) with their own money. Yes, they leveraged a lot of financing, but in the end, the company was largely their own.

If you're now the president of DLR, you don't get to stand up to Eisner, Iger, the board, the Street, or the pension funds who hold so much of the company. You've got to play the hand of cards you've just been dealt.

So what do you do?

You try to leverage margins as much as is possible. This means giving more autonomy to middle management to find ways to cut costs in the centers they're supposed to know inside and out--so long as the show remains at the current quality. You cannot compromise on maintenance or custodial, for that's a no-win situation: it shows right away, and it costs three times as much to fix.

This also means a lot of people at TDA get the boot. You start with anyone who obviously holds their customers in contempt. Everyone else starts spending more time in the parks and not in their office. If you spend more than 85% of your time in your office, you're not doing a good job.

You try to expand the high end merchandise selections which have the largest margins, and you try to squeeze your other merchandise vendors as much as is possible.

Annual passes will go up. No way around it. Everything else, you try to hold in line with inflation (which is going to spike over the next 12 quarters).

Corporate just gave you $150m to dress things up for the 50th. On the one hand, that means hopefully everything is in pretty good shape. On the other hand, nothing is going to go down until the end of the celebration, so in 18 months, you're going to have to run around and play catch up.

Attractions. You're going to have to cost them out over 5 years before you build--so you might get a C- and a D- for what you'd drop on an E-. Can't be helped. You start with another one or two attractions in DCA in attempts to get that started, and hope that attendance rises there sufficiently enough for you to concentrate perhaps on one more E-ticket for across the esplanade.

If you can't run attractions, you can sure work on the entertainment. Something should always be happening at DLR, every day. The new parades and fireworks are a beginning.

That's where I'd start. I'd hope that this would work well enough that I could squeeze more capital budget out of corporate. My main argument? DLR is still a bit short of what it needs to become a true multi-day resort. If enough attractions are brought in to warrant that (either by reforming DCA and expanding it, or a third gate), the economies of scale, and the ROI on DTD and DLR hotels increases.

How's that? Where do I sign up?

[sleepyjeff]

Why will decreasing prices lower spending per guest? If I'm paying, say, $20 to $25 tops for tickets, that means I have more left over for souvenirs, food, etc., right? If ticket prices were rolled back to 1975 levels (less than $10 per guest), even if just for a select number of days per month, each guest would have even more disposable cash available to spend in the Park. OK, so it'll likely cause overcrowding (not if you're watching the gates, though, and turning people away once you've reached capacity), but your stores and food services will be raking it in.

Think about it for a brief moment - Walmart didn't get to be the retail king by inflating prices.

Yes, but would you rather have Walmart quality(and crowds) or Sharper Image Quality?

[ah schucks]

Well, let's remember, Walt may not have had an MBA, and Roy may have, but they were also gambling (to a large extent) with their own money. Yes, they leveraged a lot of financing, but in the end, the company was largely their own.

If you're now the president of DLR, you don't get to stand up to Eisner, Iger, the board, the Street, or the pension funds who hold so much of the company. You've got to play the hand of cards you've just been dealt.

So what do you do?

You inspire them. Have we lost the great leaders, the rousing speechs, the strength and courage to do what is right? Have we lost the ability to dream in place of the quest for almighty buck? Nah, nah I say, the dream is alive! There MUST BE a level of compromise and negotiation to make it work, but work it can. You can have all MBA level idiots in the world in a room and they still can't right a great story, compose a great piece of music or paint a picture that touchs the soul.

Those corperate big shots and corperate stooges know they make there living on the backs of dreamers like me. I am a screenwriter, I sleep at night and dream of worlds they can't imagine. They can't sleep at night wondering if I dreamt up a new world for them to conquer...

[stitcharielsinbad]

awwww...what happened to the dreamy, optimistic ride dreaming? oh well you guys are so political and corporate

[Metal God]

Fire everyone and Liquidate. Then its off on a permanent vacation :devil:


Gordon Gecko Rocks \m/ \m/

[robotpirates]

...So... who likes cats?

Just kidding.

[SilentBob66]

Yes, but would you rather have Walmart quality(and crowds) or Sharper Image Quality?

I'm not talking about quality. Disneyland provided plenty of quality for a very reasonable price prior to 1984. Do the research on pricing of tickets compared with the prices of other goods and services sold at the same time, and you'll see what I'm talking about. Know how much it cost to get into Disneyland on opening day? A BUCK. Now sure, because of inflation, a 1955 dollar is worth only a fraction of a 2005 dollar, but a dollar is still a dollar. What else did a dollar buy in 1955? Let's see, milk was $0.92 a gallon, gas was $0.23 a gallon, coffee was $0.93 a pound.....

http://www.westegg.com/inflation/

What cost $1.00 in 1955 would cost $6.87 in 2005. Also, if you were to buy exactly the same products in 2005 and 1955, they would cost you $1.00 and $0.15 respectively.

OK, let's say Disneyland were to roll Park prices back to 1975, only 30 years instead of 50. What would it cost today? 1975 Adult Ticket Book w/11 attractions = $6.00. What cost $6.00 in 1975 would cost $22.47 in 2005.

But, you say, today we get to go on every ride as many times as we want. OK, then what if we roll back prices to 1982, when the Disneyland Passport took over from the old ticket books? An adult passport in 1982 was only $12.00. What cost $12.00 in 1982 would cost $24.34 in 2005.

So you see, it's all about greed, and not about quality. Disneyland was providing plenty of high quality entertainment before ticket prices started rising into the stratosphere, and if they brought prices back down to a more reasonable level, commensurate with inflation, Disney would still profit nicely.

And the notion that Disneyland should be some sort of exclusive, elite club is obnoxious and spits on Walt's memory. Walt made Disneyland for everyone, not just the wealthy.

[dshimel]

Great post Mr. Wotan!

I think you're on the right track here.

Up the cost of all APs by another 50%.
$500 for PAP (up the shopping discount to 20%)
$300 for DAP (add 10% shopping discount and free parking)
$225 for Off-Season AP (current SoCal, lift SoCal restriction)
$150 for SoCal Select

My guess is we'd lose 100,000 APs and cause many to downgrade to lower levels. Still, increase average cost of passes sold $100 to from $175 to $275.

500,000 * $275 = $40 million extra income from sale of APs....
100,000 fewer APs at 10 visits each = 1 million fewer visits at $25 per visit so $25 million in reduced sales... Hopefully the higher shopping discounts will recoup some of these lost sales.
Also, hopefully, some of those 100,000 APs will visit on off-season discounts.

Next off-season: Instead of buy DL, get DCA free make it buy 1-day hopper, 1-day DCA only for free (extra $70 per ticket). Push the APs bring a friend for $90 2-day hopper. Do the adults play at kids price again.

Net hoped effects:
Ticket Revenue: $40 million extra on APs. $30 million extra on non-AP locals (up the average cost by $5 each * 6 million visitors)
Merchandise Revenue: down $20 million.
Costs: down $5 million in costs of good sold.

Net effect: $55 million increased operating income.
More than half-way to my goal.

I'd use this to beg, borrow or steal another $50 million a year capital budget from corporate. Assuming increased capital budget from $150 to $200 million, $50 million for refurbs and $150 million new construction.


My CAPITAL plan would be:
Tomorrow (2005 capital budget):
Subs and Monsters already in budget.....

$50 extra =
New DTD parking garage in the lot north of DLH... 10 acre foot print, 2 stories (ground + 1) = 20 acres = 2500-3000 cars
Cost $30 million (I ran a web search and found several parking garage construction projects and this was the average for a project of this type).

$20 million towards Woody's roundup for Festival of Fools.

2006 Capital Budget
As soon as the garage is complete. Shut down the current DTD parking lot and start construction of phase 2 of DTD. $50 million construction cost from 2006 (another $50 million out of 2007)
$20 million for Subs
$40 million toward DCA E-Ticket
$40 million for Woody's roundup.
(Significant Portion of $50 million refurb budget goes to Star Tours destination 2)

Spring 2006: Monsters Inc.
Fall 2006: Woody's Round-up opens ($60 million = D-Ticket and 2 C-Tickets)
Spring 2007: Subs open.

New capacity of subs and Woody's greatly reduces overcrowding issue, brings in additional guests, and sells more Nemo and Toy Story merchandise. Sales cover increased operational costs.

No additional changes to operations or significant price changes (just price increases double the rate of inflation)

2007 capital budget
$50 million for DTD phase 2
$50 million for DCA E-ticket
$50 million for DCA D-Ticket and C-Ticket.
(significant portion of refurb budget goes to 3-D movie to replace HISTA)

2008:
DTD phase 2 opens.
Revenue from DTD increases profitabitity to target 20% margin.
DCA new land opens ($150 million for E-Ticket, D-Ticekt and C-Ticket).
DCA starts selling significant number of 1-day tickets.

2008:
$100 million expansion to PPH
$50 million toward DCA E-Ticket

2009:
$100 million expansion to GCH
$50 million DCA E-Ticket


End Result:
DL: Today's rides + Space Mt, Subs, and Woody's round-up (1 D-Ticket and 2 C-tickets), Star Tours mission 2, 3-D movie HISTA replacement.
DCA: 2 new E-Tickets (bringing the total to 6) plus Monsters Inc, a D-Ticket and a C-Ticket.

Ticket Revenue:
5 million visits by 500,000 APs at $275-300 each average = $150 million revenue. (result of 50% price increase in 2005)
10 million visits by 4 million out-of-staters averaging 2.5 days each (new rides have increased average out-of-state stay from 1.5 days to 2.5 days) at $50 per visit = $500 million revenue
6 million visitations by non-AP locals at $45 a day = $270 million revenue ($12 more per trip due to no longer relying on 2-for-1 to fill DCA)

Ticket revenue up from $600 million a year to $920 million.


Food and Merchandise:
AP: 5 million visits x $25 = $125 million
Out-of-town: 10 million visits x $40 million = $400 million
Non-AP Locals: 6 million x $35 = $210 million

Food and Merchandise up from $600 million to $735 million.


Hotels:
3000 vs 2000 rooms increase revenue from $120 million to $175 million
(3000*365*.8 occupancy * $200)

DTD:
Double the size increase lease revenue from $120 million to $200 million (law of diminishing return)

Total revenue:
Up from $1.4 billion to $2 billion



Costs:
$60 million for hotel operations. ($50 per room per day)
$100 million for DTD operations (2.5 x current(current building will age and need more work))
$370 million for food and merchandise (50% margin)
$700 million in park operation costs (current 600 * (21 million guests end/18 million guests start)
$160 million in management including TDA, corporate governance, property taxes, benifits to retirees, etc
$150 million advertising (increase 50% to help increase average stay for out-of-towner from 1.5 days to 2.5 days)

Total $1.54 billion (up $300 million (25%) from current $1.24 billion)

Operating income = $500 million = 25% of $2 billion revenue.

I can increase maintenance significantly above 2003 levels, and still be well above my 20% goal!


Keys to this plan:
Significant increase in the price of AP. Drives new revenue now to justify higher capital budget and drives away locals from busiest days to improve the experience for out-of-towners to help increase average stay from 1.5 days to 2.5 days.

Significant expansion of DTD.

Enough new rides for DL to increase capacity for peak days.

Enough new rides at DCA to make it a full-day park for out of towners and to drive locals to visit without 2-for-1.

Significant number of new hotel rooms.


2010: Water Park for remainder of DCA. (pushing out-of-town stay to 3 days)

2015: $2 billion 3rd-gate + $300 million for 2000 more hotel rooms + $100 million 2nd parking garage + monorail linking it all.

Revenue:
Tickets:
700,000 APs at $350 each = $245 million and 10 million visitations (15 visits per AP)
5 million out-of-owners at 3.5 days each = 17.5 million visits and $875 million
9 million visitation by non-AP locals at $45 = $405 million
Total: $1.525 billion

Food and Merchandise:
AP: $250 million
OoT: $700 million
Local: $315 million
Total: $1.265 billion

DTD: $200 million (same as before 3rd gate)

Hotels: $255 million (5000 rooms*365*.8 * $175)

Total Revenue: $3.245 billion

Costs: $2.31 billion (up 50% from 2 parks)

Operating income = $935 million = 28% operating margin.




Now you can really do things, like giving DCA that $1 billion enema it really needs.

[ah schucks]

Dshimel-

I believe you have a well thought out plan here but I believe you seriously over estimate how much APs will be willing to fork over. If you raised this prices to this level right now, you would cut a massive amount of APs who are on the fence.

Up the cost of all APs by another 50%.
$500 for PAP (up the shopping discount to 20%)
$300 for DAP (add 10% shopping discount and free parking)
$225 for Off-Season AP (current SoCal, lift SoCal restriction)
$150 for SoCal Select

EG- If my Premium All Access Pass goes up by 200 dollars and I am gonna drop down to the Deluxe Pass, which will forgo the May 5th/July 15th/17th festivities, I know have to pay an additional cost for what I had already been getting the year before. It know requires 9 visits on the Premium Pass before it begins to pay for itself, assuming the ticket prices are roughly 55 dollars and includes free parking.

You are essentially shifting the burden of the park on the APs who will not stay over at the park and make it a vacation. It easy arm chair economics from the desert, but for the locals who live here, its a mighty big problem. These same people who visit friends who are Cast Members, who turn out and bring business when its slow will disappear.

A 50% markup is incredible, already the prices are getting to a point where numerous APs I know will not renew next year.

Push the APs bring a friend for $90 2-day hopper. Do the adults play at kids price again.

Sure slap the APs in the face with a price increase and then expect them to provide posistive free advertising? ...and I have seen elephants fly!

The rest of this is well executed and laid out. The "beg borrow and steal" clause is rather amusing because it seems that to generate good overall sense of corperate synergy, I would promote tickets sales without the massive price increases and just go the whole 9 yards and ask for the difference from the company. In exchange there products, films and services are being promoted in the parks! You think WDI wants Pixar rides? No but inner company synergy greases the wheel and so does the money.

[dshimel]

Know how much it cost to get into Disneyland on opening day? A BUCK. Now sure, because of inflation, a 1955 dollar is worth only a fraction of a 2005 dollar, but a dollar is still a dollar. What else did a dollar buy in 1955? Let's see, milk was $0.92 a gallon, gas was $0.23 a gallon, coffee was $0.93 a pound.....

But you didn't get any rides for your $1. If you wanted to ride rides, you'd actually spend $2-$3.

And how many rides were there? About 1/3rd as many rides as today.

What cost $1.00 in 1955 would cost $6.87 in 2005.

But to ride all the rides was $3 = which inflates to $20... With tripple the number of rides now... $50 doesn't seen unreasonable.

AND, inflation for goods which are mostly material or those that can be manufactured over-seas, have inflated much slower than average. Goods that are mostly service oriented, like health-care and restaurants have inflated much faster than average.

Postage, all labor... 1955 = 3 cents... inflated to today should be 21 cents.. really = 37 cents.

Disneyland's costs are mosly labor!

So you see, it's all about greed, and not about quality.

It is all about reasonable return on investment.

Do you invest any money? Any at all? Do you expect to make money on your investments? Believe it or not, most people do... They just don't like to invest, then lose money.

Disneyland was providing plenty of high quality entertainment before ticket prices started rising into the stratosphere, and if they brought prices back down to a more reasonable level, commensurate with inflation, Disney would still profit nicely.

'splain this to me..... They're running at capacity, at what you call stratospheric prices... and barely breaking even with their costs.

'splain me how they'll make more money by charging less.