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What's your AP prediction?

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  • What's your AP prediction?

    “We will be reshaping our Annual Pass program to better manage the guest experience throughout the year, which will help all Disneyland Resort guests have a great visit, particularly as we look forward to the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge in 2019.”

    With that carefully prepared (but potentially loaded) statement from Disneyland PR, the speculation floodgates are open. What's your off-the-cuff prediction on what the "reshaping" of the AP program will be?

    Here's my initial guess...

    1. The SoCal and Select passes will be permanently retired and consolidated into a single local pass. It will be open about 200 days a year (SoCal is currently around 225 and Select is 175 days). It will be priced at about $490. The monthly payment option will remain, but this time there will be no grandfathering of older passes. Current SLs and SCs will have to buy the new pass when their current one expires.

    2. Deluxe and Signature passes will also be retired and consolidated into a single pass that is open about 330 days a year (DX is currently 315 and SG is 350). It will be priced around $850 and have the current food and merch discounts of Signature, but it won't include PhotoPass or MaxPass. Signature and Deluxe will remain available for renewal.

    3. Signature+ will remain, but it will get a $50 price boost and will start including MaxPass.

    Bonus Prediction: Early next year, Disney will announce that Galaxy's Edge will be operated like a FastPass attraction for its first 90 days. Regular single-day and multi-day tickets will include guaranteed entries. A limited number of entries for APs will be available on a first-come, first-serve basis.

  • #2
    Originally posted by longbeachaztec View Post
    “We will be reshaping our Annual Pass program to better manage the guest experience throughout the year, which will help all Disneyland Resort guests have a great visit, particularly as we look forward to the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge in 2019.”

    With that carefully prepared (but potentially loaded) statement from Disneyland PR, the speculation floodgates are open. What's your off-the-cuff prediction on what the "reshaping" of the AP program will be?

    Here's my initial guess...

    1. The SoCal and Select passes will be permanently retired and consolidated into a single local pass. It will be open about 200 days a year (SoCal is currently around 225 and Select is 175 days). It will be priced at about $490. The monthly payment option will remain, but this time there will be no grandfathering of older passes. Current SLs and SCs will have to buy the new pass when their current one expires.

    2. Deluxe and Signature passes will also be retired and consolidated into a single pass that is open about 330 days a year (DX is currently 315 and SG is 350). It will be priced around $850 and have the current food and merch discounts of Signature, but it won't include PhotoPass or MaxPass. Signature and Deluxe will remain available for renewal.

    3. Signature+ will remain, but it will get a $50 price boost and will start including MaxPass.

    Bonus Prediction: Early next year, Disney will announce that Galaxy's Edge will be operated like a FastPass attraction for its first 90 days. Regular single-day and multi-day tickets will include guaranteed entries. A limited number of entries for APs will be available on a first-come, first-serve basis.
    Sig+ already includes MaxPass.
    Dumbo rats: the other lovable rodents.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by whiteness View Post

      Sig+ already includes MaxPass.
      Well, I guess everybody now knows which pass I do not hold...

      Comment


      • #4
        I think you hit the head on the nail with your entire post (except for number 3 ). I like the idea of an annual pass being good only for a limited number of visits, and I think Disney might try that out with the consolidated SoCal pass in addition to the revised blockout dates. There's no doubt they need to revise the blockout dates and consolidate passes, but the recent increases of every tier of ticket except for the value 1-park 1-day pass tells me Disney may be counting on priced-out APs to try out those sorts of tickets instead. That would make your bonus prediction even more likely.

        Comment


        • #5
          I think something like the magic band system at WDW is coming to DL and for SWL, you will need to reserve your ride days, weeks, months in advance.Implementing that will reduce the crowds in SWL slightly.

          As for AP changes, my guess is that for lower passes, they do away with park hopping. Park hopping will only be a feature on sig+. They will offer a DCA only pass for cheap with few or no blackouts. My guess would be $450.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by longbeachaztec View Post
            “We will be reshaping our Annual Pass program to better manage the guest experience throughout the year, which will help all Disneyland Resort guests have a great visit, particularly as we look forward to the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge in 2019.”
            I'm encouraged by what the PR folks are saying. They are in essence sending a message to all APs that changes are coming to "better manage the guest experience." It doesn't take a genius to figure out what that means. The horrible overcrowding has ruined what was once a magical place known as Disneyland. And the #1 reason for the overcrowding are Annual Passholders. And please don't tell me APs have nothing to do with overcrowding. Anyone who says that is living in Fantasyland.
            What I'd like to see happen to the Annual Pass program is the elimination of the locals only APs. Nothing promotes overcrowding more than making it easy for someone to hop in their car and invade the park because they're bored at home. I would offer only two passes; one with no blockouts but at least $1800, and another with tons of blockouts selling for $900. But the most important factor would be the elimination of the worst idea to happen...monthly payments.

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            • #7
              I can see limiting the number of days used for a lower tier pass but that would never fly for the top end AP if it gives you 365 days of access it would need to actually give you 350 days of access. I think the main changes will be to reduce the number of AP's offered and the payment plan.
              BGood! It's not just my motto its my name!

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              • #8
                I think it will become this:

                Disney Magic Pass - $569
                SoCal Select Pass Replacement (non summer/non winter weekdays only) without limitation of being a local. 12 visits annually.

                Disney Premium Pass - $1299
                Premium Pass revival, all days, parking, maxpass, 24 visits annually.

                Discounts will be nonexistent with the exception of parking on the premium pass. This is all Disney needs, a 2 pass system.

                Star Wars Land will not be a separately accessed event, they are not going to have ticket checks as you walk in, it would be a nightmare and Disneyland has never worked that way, it would ruin the experience.
                Last edited by Nesboy43; 02-13-2018, 11:34 AM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Accepting that...
                  • Crowding is good for Disney
                  • The guests are accepting the current crowd levels
                  • Disney is adding parking capacity to increase the current level of crowding
                  • Disney is concerned about capacity for Star Wars Land specifically
                  • Disney has been actively moving entertainment and attractions to entice more guests to DCA
                  Then I am guessing two scenarios or some combination of the two:

                  1) Annual Passes stop being annual and move into a seasonal pass category. They may sell "blocks" of three to four months at a time. Lower tier passes would not be available during the summer months. Passes that are good for the entire year would be more expensive. This allows them to block out entire months through out the summer to alleviate concerns for Star Wars land.

                  2) The return of the DCA only AP as a cheaper alternative to a two park AP. With the need to still entice people to come to DCA en masse, and the desire to restrict from Disneyland, they need to have a better way of managing the crowds between the two parks. That will only come in the form of splitting up the ticketing options, as they had originally planned for DCA.

                  2.5) I suppose I could count this as a different scenario, but like above I wouldn't put off the table the possibility of the same "resort" pass structure we have today, but different blockout calendars per park. This would mirror the calendars that the CM sign in pass blockouts currently operate with.


                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I really don't care what Disney does with their annual pass program, although I guess I should care, since many folks think that monthly payments for annual passes is the number one reason for overcrowding in the parks. My first visit to Disneyland was in 2005, and since then, I have taken about a dozen trips out to California. Each and every time, my vacations cost me more and more. My biggest gripe was when Disney limited me to a 5 day ticket. I did manage to swing two trips one year, and held an AP to get 14 days total for the year. Now, I can't afford that. The airfare/hotel/ticket/souvenir totals just don't shake out to be economical. A deluxe pass is over $700 and I'd have to be there a total of at least 10 days to make it worth my while. Even using my timeshare, I just can't afford the total costs at my age. Sure glad I have a lot of great Disneyland memories, because I most likely won't be making any new ones any time soon. Maybe just one more could be in my future, after the reveal/opening/existence of Star Wars Land. I will do the math, and see if it's doable for me. However, I don't see that happening. Crowds are probably the most complained thing I read about. Cost even plays a back seat to that. I guess the AP program does have a direct effect on the tourist. Do I envy the locals? Sometimes.
                    BarbaraAnn

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Nesboy43 View Post
                      I think it will become this:

                      Disney Magic Pass - $569
                      SoCal Pass Replacement without limitation of being a local. 12 visits annually.

                      Disney Premium Pass - $1299
                      Premium Pass revival, all days, parking, maxpass, 24 visits annually.

                      Discounts will be nonexistent with the exception of parking on the premium pass. This is all Disney needs, a 2 pass system.
                      I would think, from Disney's perspective, the biggest issue with giving a set number of enties is that you can't really control when people will come. Since you inflate the value of each entry, you will find people save in them up or picking higher priority days over others.

                      ​​​​​
                      Last edited by MrLiver; 02-13-2018, 11:52 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by MrLiver View Post

                        I would think, from Disney's perspective, the biggest issue with giving a set number of enties is that you can't really control when people will come. Since you inflate the value of each entry, you will find people say in them up or picking higher priority days over others.
                        Sorry I edited my post to be more clear. The Magic Pass is only for weekdays (aka same set of days as existing SoCal Pass), however 12 visits is the maximum.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Personally, I think the easiest way to reduce overcrowding is the same way we did gas rationing in the 70's (though I did not live through that, as I'm young(ish)) - why not have every other week, where if your pass ends with an even number, you can go this week, and odd numbers go the next. In order to match up with your friends, everyone buys at the same time or register online via dland website.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Some possible things they could be thinking based on the last few years of pricing experiments.

                            A "Year" pass. (example 2018 pass would be valid January - December 31st) - This pass would have a pricing structure based on the number of days you want to attend. Think the so cal resident tickets where its 3 days but not consecutive like a park hopper. Examples. 2018 - 10 day pass = $400, 20 day pass = $700, 52 day pass (once a week) = $1000. Days you don't use are lost at the end of the year. (prices could be different but its just so you get the idea behind it.)

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              This summer or fall I can see them announcing both a cheap DCA only pass with no blackouts and a new Marvel land coming to DCA.

                              Beyond that, I agree they will create a block of days pass, where you pay for 10, 20, 52 visits a year. And within each block category, two types. A value and a premier. The value gives you 10 days during certain times of year. The premier giving you 10 visits any time of year.

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                I don't think anything too crazy honestly. I would say higher prices again in the next year around 10-20% across the board on APs. Either retire so-cal passes or significantly hinder their days they can attend. A wild card prediction is the eliminations of payment plans on the lower tier passes only. I don't see them getting rid of someone who does payment plans on the highest tier pass. A person spending over 1000 dollars on an AP does in fact spend money at the parks when they visit. I have a lot of people in my circles that can attest to this LOL!
                                These are some of my favorite TRs I have posted

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                                NYE 2012
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                                • #17
                                  1. I think the SoCal pass is finally eliminated leaving those passholders to choose the Select or Deluxe and above.

                                  2. You will have to reserve your date you want to visit the resort through the app, online, or by phone. No more just showing up on the day your pass is valid for admission. This way Disney knows exactly how many APs are going to be in the parks on any given day.

                                  3. DCA and DL will have different blockout calendars. Universal Orlando does this with Universal Studios, Islands of Adventure, and Volcano Bay.

                                  4. Parking benefit is eliminated from the Signature and Signature Plus passes. If you want parking you have to buy the Premier Passport.
                                  For Disney Theme Park Video Click Here!

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    Originally posted by Nesboy43 View Post

                                    Sorry I edited my post to be more clear. The Magic Pass is only for weekdays (aka same set of days as existing SoCal Pass), however 12 visits is the maximum.
                                    Sorry I got pulled away too...

                                    My general concern with the set number of visits is that it will re-prioritize the way the Annual Pass population visits the park. Certain days (maybe surrounding holidays or before long blockout periods) will still experience overcrowding. Then days where attendance is historically low, could still be empty. The disparity between the two is a bigger problem for Disney than a park that is moderately crowded all the time. For example, Disney wouldn't want to build a 6,000 spot parking structure that they only intend to use 10 days of the year.

                                    The point of the AP program is to drive attendance when and WHERE you need it. If it's not filling the park on the slow days, then it is of no benefit to Disney.

                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      Since this is just predictions, I'll play

                                      I don't see limiting annual pass holders to a set number of days. It doesn't make sense to limit a high tier pass holder to something like 24 days. I know that there is this perspective out there that pass holders don't spend money in the parks, but I don't think it's true. Why do you think they make all of the AP only merchandise? Rarely do we have a day at Disney where we don't spend money, and that's usually their fault, because if it's swamped beyond reason we'll bug out by 1 and hit In 'N Out on the way home (and we drive 1+ hour each way, so we aren't super local). I think it may be easier for pass holders to spend, since we aren't on a vacation budget. Maybe we don't eat three meals a day at Disney, but we usually aren't there 16 hours a day, either. We almost always eat one meal in the park, a snack or dessert, and we buy perch. Who do you think all the limited edition pin releases are aimed at? I don't think many people are going to buy a 1 day ticket to get inside to buy a pint why buy the limited edition ____ pin if you can't go back the next month to get the next pin in the series. I think pass holders do spend significant money in the parks. In 2017, when we mostly had Sig passes (that we added MaxPass to and then upgraded to Sig+ in November), we spent more in the parks than we spent on the annual passes we'd purchased for the 4 of us. Like I said, we drive 1+ hour each way. We eat in the parks at least once each visit (usually with a beverage), we buy snacks (not just popcorn) and desserts, we buy hot beverages (sometimes in the park sometimes in DtD), and we buy clothing, pins, and other merchandise. We don't even choose the cheapest places to eat, and often choose Rancho Del Zocalo or Plaza Inn versus the cheaper burger places. We do table service at least once a month.

                                      I do think that we could see a DCA only pass, but with the opening of Pixar Pier I'd say that this is only a maybe. I think the decision on this will be made after PP has been open for the summer, as we get closer to SW:GE opening. I'm not sure it did all that well, since Disney discontinued selling it.

                                      I think that there are too many pass options without enough differentiation between them. That brief return to the SoCal pass was a poor move, in my opinion. Yes, it was possibly the best value pass for locals, but they could easily be shifted down to select or up to Deluxe (and how easy is that -- if you can't go on weekdays you have to choose Deluxe). I also think that MaxPass made the Sig pass superfluous, and with current pricing if you want MaxPass, why not pay $75 more for a Sig+ and get a pass with zero blockout dates? That's an awful cheap way to get to go over the end of year holidays.

                                      This is what I think makes the most sense. Offer an annual pass like the Sig+ that has MaxPass, PhotoPass, and parking, no blackouts, and charge more for it than they do now as we approach the opening of Galaxy's Edge. As much as I hate to say it, make it hurt to buy that pass, putting that pass holder more on par with someone who buys a multi-day park hopper for vacation. Then offer one lower end pass that excludes all weekends and peak seasons, as the Select does now, but do a better job of determining what peak is. Block those passes out for a portion of Halloween Time, because that has become crazy busy. Offer a mid-level pass, but don't allow any add-ons like MaxPass, PhotoPass, or parking -- make people pay for those each time like regular ticket holders (same with the lowest level pass). Three pass levels would be plenty, with the lowest tier for So Cal residents only. Oh, I'd increase the restaurant discount to 20% for the highest pass, make the mid level pass 15%, and the lowest level 10%, and I'd have the merchandise discount match that.

                                      I'd be surprised to see that lowest end SoCal pass disappear. Who is going to go to SW:GE on the random Tuesday in February? Not families traveling from out of state on vacation. Already they don't pull in enough pass holders in the first months of the year to get the attendance numbers they want, which is why they offer the SoCal 2 and 3 day ticket specials. Now SW:GE could change that, but I don't think that all of America is going to upend their vacation plans for 2019 to come to the DLR. By early winter 2020 they may offer a SoCal special again.

                                      I do think we'll see SW:GE advance preview parties, as paid events, like they did when MSEP returned.

                                      (I'll note that we were at the park last night and DH was surprised at ticket and pass price increases when Main Street is under such a major refurbishment, and Paradise Pier, as well.)

                                      Comment


                                      • #20
                                        Higher prices on all passes with a huge jump in price between the Deluxe and Sig, say a jump of $400.00 or more, and a lot more blockout dates on the So Cals and Deluxe to make them less attractive. This will eliminate some people simply due to the higher price + less access issue. And others will drop out who cannot afford (or will not pay) the huge price jump to a Sig for more days in the parks. This would seem to be in keeping with Disney's past philosophy.

                                        I also wouldn't be surprised to see the limiting of park hopping, but I'd expect it to be that they limit access to DL quite a bit more with only 'token' blocks to access to DCA to make it appear 'fairer'. This in preparation for SWL to better manage crowds.

                                        It's funny that they'll probably do a bunch of rigmarole and pricing and access, etc when all they'd really have to do is eliminate the monthly payment plan and make just one So Cal with limited access (eliminate the So Cal Select AND stop renewals on the So Cal).

                                        "Life is not about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about learning to dance in the rain.​"

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