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  • It's the Deluxe blockouts

    Others have previously suggested that summer is the new off season because of all the blockouts. And that was before this summer. However, wait times in prior summers were still healthy because Deluxe holders were allowed in.

    I posit the reason for the perceived lower than expected attendance at DL this summer is not due to overpricing or a tepid response to SWGE, but simply due to Deluxe being blocked out for the first time. Attendance was not low prior to summer. But as soon as Deluxe became blocked out, we saw a dip in attendance. If come end of August, when Deluxe and SoCal are not blocked out anymore, we see attendance soar, then I think it's clear the reason for the drop is due to the deluxe blockout. However, if attendance remains low into September and into the Halloween season overlay, then I think we can say DL has overpriced itself. Let's just play with some numbers. Assume 1 million AP holders. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume 20% of those are Deluxe holders. That's 200,000 people who would otherwise be visiting DL right now but for the blockouts. If those people were in the parks now, you would see some serious wait times. When the tourists are gone, the lower tiers are welcome back and thus the better part of 1 million people.

  • #2
    While I think we can all agree that the blockouts are a big portion of the lowered attendance I would argue there is far more to the issue. Correct me if I’m wrong but last summer Deluxe passed were blocked out Saturdays, and in many of these cases the crowds were far larger than they are this summer, pointing to the fact that blackouts are not the only culprit. if they were then last year during these blackout days the parks would be as dead as they are now and I can certainly say that last summers’ Saturdays were far busier than this year’s

    Anecdotally as well, in other parks with major new lands or rides opening, Avatar Land, Diagon Alley etc there was a big bump in attendance and wait times WITHOUT fast passes were very long. SWGE has not drawn either of these meaning tourists that normally would flock to these openings just aren’t.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by linkeq2001 View Post
      While I think we can all agree that the blockouts are a big portion of the lowered attendance I would argue there is far more to the issue. Correct me if I’m wrong but last summer Deluxe passed were blocked out Saturdays, and in many of these cases the crowds were far larger than they are this summer, pointing to the fact that blackouts are not the only culprit. if they were then last year during these blackout days the parks would be as dead as they are now and I can certainly say that last summers’ Saturdays were far busier than this year’s

      Anecdotally as well, in other parks with major new lands or rides opening, Avatar Land, Diagon Alley etc there was a big bump in attendance and wait times WITHOUT fast passes were very long. SWGE has not drawn either of these meaning tourists that normally would flock to these openings just aren’t.
      It is interesting that last year Saturdays are busier than this year. That's the crux, what happened? Whether or not SW:GE was a hit or not, why is attendance down across the park on summer Saturdays where Deluxe has never been a factor?

      Even Chapek's unrelenting cheapouts (cutting live entertainment across the resort etc) couldn't be the whole reason.

      Blockouts may or may not be part of the issue, but something is keeping people away? Lack of interest, pricing, economic cycle shift? Very interesting.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by linkeq2001 View Post
        While I think we can all agree that the blockouts are a big portion of the lowered attendance I would argue there is far more to the issue. Correct me if I’m wrong but last summer Deluxe passed were blocked out Saturdays, and in many of these cases the crowds were far larger than they are this summer, pointing to the fact that blackouts are not the only culprit. if they were then last year during these blackout days the parks would be as dead as they are now and I can certainly say that last summers’ Saturdays were far busier than this year’s

        Anecdotally as well, in other parks with major new lands or rides opening, Avatar Land, Diagon Alley etc there was a big bump in attendance and wait times WITHOUT fast passes were very long. SWGE has not drawn either of these meaning tourists that normally would flock to these openings just aren’t.
        I don't know if we can accurately point to Saturday's last summer and say those Saturdays had more people than this year's summer Saturdays because we have a larger park now with people diffused over a greater area. Plus a handful of Saturdays is too small a sample size to accurately identify what is causing lower than expected attendance.

        With regard to the other two lands you mentioned, that's an interesting observation. I wonder though, if DW and Universal Orlando rely on locals as heavily as DL does? I would assume the two Florida parks are almost completely tourist dependent in the summer whereas fewer tourists go to DL but many more locals visit. So if you cut the locals off, you could still have more than expected tourists, but the tourists still wouldn't outnumber the locals, thus giving the impression of fewer tourists or an unsuccessful opening. I don't know. These are just musings.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by linkeq2001 View Post
          While I think we can all agree that the blockouts are a big portion of the lowered attendance I would argue there is far more to the issue. Correct me if I’m wrong but last summer Deluxe passed were blocked out Saturdays, and in many of these cases the crowds were far larger than they are this summer, pointing to the fact that blackouts are not the only culprit. if they were then last year during these blackout days the parks would be as dead as they are now and I can certainly say that last summers’ Saturdays were far busier than this year’s

          Anecdotally as well, in other parks with major new lands or rides opening, Avatar Land, Diagon Alley etc there was a big bump in attendance and wait times WITHOUT fast passes were very long. SWGE has not drawn either of these meaning tourists that normally would flock to these openings just aren’t.
          I was just going to say this as well. In the past, Deluxe has been blocked out on summer Saturdays. A good comparison would be to compare Saturdays this year with, say, the past 2-3 years. My subscription to Touring Plans recently expired, but if anyone's still active, you can run their crowd calendar and compare the crowd levels and all wait times, for each year.

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          • #6
            This is ABSOLUTE. We went on Memorial day weekend, and the weekend before Christmas when Deluxe was blocked, best trips ever. Sorry, but for a 2-3 day trip from NorCal, I much prefer it this way, and FLEX pass is going to totally ruin these lovely slow times.
            sigpic
            Elsa's and Anna's
            Disneyland Dec 2014

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