COVID-19 and Christmastime

[Slappyland]

So I've been hearing that this whole COVID-19 crisis isn't going to end anytime soon, and in fact, won't probably end until a vaccine is found. Scientists expect 18 months at the earliest.

So with the country on lock-down/quarantine for 18 months, how will Disneyland deal with the loss of not only losing out on 2 summer seasons, but also a Christmas season?
How can Disney afford to continue to pay it's employees until the fall of 2021, if the parks won't be open to generate income? I'm assuming it will come in the form of a bailout, but that's only assuming they do get a bailout. Otherwise, I am very afraid of how this will impact Disney Parks.

Also, Disney aside, I wonder how the world is going to get through the Christmas season this year when all the stores are going to be shut down, and families won't be allowed to travel to visit loved ones.

[Spongeocto4]

I don't suspect the country will be locked down for a year and a half. People are recovering from the virus naturally, without the vaccine. However, the virus is a still a threat to those with special circumstances(the elderly, pregnant women, and people with pre-existing conditions).

[PhotoMatt]

[QUOTEI don't suspect the country will be locked down for a year and a half. People are recovering from the virus naturally, without the vaccine. However, the virus is a still a threat to those with special circumstances(the elderly, pregnant women, and people with pre-existing conditions).[/QUOTE]

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coro...urphy/2337410/

This does not contradict your statement, but I think it's important information to add. 55 percent of the people infected with the virus are between 18-49.

[Disneylandfan85]

I don't suspect the country will be locked down for a year and a half. People are recovering from the virus naturally, without the vaccine. However, the virus is a still a threat to those with special circumstances(the elderly, pregnant women, and people with pre-existing conditions).

From watching "Face the Nation" on CBS, they said that the virus (at least in the U.S.; not sure about the rest of the world) is likely to peak some time in late April and then decline in May and June before finally breaking for good (knock on wood) in July and August. So maybe, just maybe, the impending summer heat will play a role after all.

However, while that should hopefully answer the question of when COVID-19 should go down, it brings up two new questions. First, will the so-called nonessential establishments be able to reopen by, say, June, if not sooner? And second and more important, is it only gone temporarily and that there is likely a second wave coming in September and beyond?

So I don't think the whole country will be on lockdown for a year and a half (I don't think we can afford to do so without risking another depression), but I do wonder if it will be back in the fall and that only a vaccine can get rid of it for good.

[WaltDisney'sAlec]

After the new tax law was passed in 2017, businesses can use net operating losses as a federal income tax deduction against future profits. If Disney loses $50 billion this year, they can use that as a tax deduction against whatever corporate income tax they ever have to pay in the future (up to 80% of their income). As long as they have enough cash on hand to cover whatever expenses they're still being charged for, they can theoretically continue to lose money and help it keep their taxes down forever (until the deductions run out).

Additionally, the country/Disneyland are not likely to be on lockdown for 18 months. The pandemic "ends" when everyone is either immune to the disease because they've beaten it or inoculated from a vaccine. The lockdown will end or be lessened when government and healthcare officials feel the hospital system can adequately treat patients. Because there is no cure for the vaccine, we just need enough resources to treat the symptoms (ventilators to keep people breathing, masks and gloves to keep healthcare workers from getting sick, etc.). It's unclear at what point that will be, but even the worst case scenario will not require a lockdown. People who have completely recovered and are no longer at risk of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 won't need to be on lockdown.

[hbdad]

Slappyland- Please stop posting that we will be on lockdown for 18 months and that everything is going to be closed including Disneyland until 2022. Those are not facts. No one has said that. You keep claiming that everything will be on lockdown until a vaccine is found. That is not true. All you're doing is fear mongering. If you have valid sources that say we will be on lockdown for 18 months and that stores will be closed at least until next year, please cite. Otherwise, stop with your annoying false statements.

[Mrs. Toad]

Slappyland- Please stop posting that we will be on lockdown for 18 months and that everything is going to be closed including Disneyland until 2022. Those are not facts. No one has said that. You keep claiming that everything will be on lockdown until a vaccine is found. That is not true. All you're doing is fear-mongering. If you have valid sources that say we will be on lockdown for 18 months and that stores will be closed at least until next year, please cite. Otherwise, stop with your annoying false statements.

Thank you, hbdad.
Misinformation that causes fear and panic is very irresponsible and dangerous.

[TacAlert]

Slappyland- Please stop posting that we will be on lockdown for 18 months and that everything is going to be closed including Disneyland until 2022. Those are not facts. No one has said that. You keep claiming that everything will be on lockdown until a vaccine is found. That is not true. All you're doing is fear mongering. If you have valid sources that say we will be on lockdown for 18 months and that stores will be closed at least until next year, please cite. Otherwise, stop with your annoying false statements.

THANK YOU!!!! I am so tired of people posting fake statistics. Everything you hear on the news is someone's opinion and just that, an opinion.

Disneyland, Knotts, USH, MM, and all other parks will reopen soon. There is no way the USA will survive with businesses being closed down.

Remember when this really hit the news, we were hearing 4% of people who had it were dying. The number is only around 1% for USA cases. Stop worrying. Enjoy life.

[TacAlert]

So I've been hearing that this whole COVID-19 crisis isn't going to end anytime soon, and in fact, won't probably end until a vaccine is found. Scientists expect 18 months at the earliest.

So with the country on lock-down/quarantine for 18 months, how will Disneyland deal with the loss of not only losing out on 2 summer seasons, but also a Christmas season?
How can Disney afford to continue to pay it's employees until the fall of 2021, if the parks won't be open to generate income? I'm assuming it will come in the form of a bailout, but that's only assuming they do get a bailout. Otherwise, I am very afraid of how this will impact Disney Parks.

Also, Disney aside, I wonder how the world is going to get through the Christmas season this year when all the stores are going to be shut down, and families won't be allowed to travel to visit loved ones.

Where did you hear this? Betting you won't post any link. And please don't give us the "friend of a friend who works in the federal government" told me answer.

[Mr Wiggins]

So I've been hearing that this whole COVID-19 crisis isn't going to end anytime soon, and in fact, won't probably end until a vaccine is found. Scientists expect 18 months at the earliest....

You've been hearing correctly. It's unfortunate that other posters would rather attack you than do a few seconds of research:

University of Minnesota Center for Infections Disease Research and Policy: "Modeling study suggests 18 months of COVID-19 social distancing, much disruption"

New York Times: "U.S. Virus Plan Anticipates 18-Month Pandemic and Widespread Shortages"

Live Science: "Coronavirus pandemic could last over 18 months, according to a federal plan"

[hbdad]

Mr. Wiggins, please respond to the actual issues that were disagreed with. I, nor anyone else, disagreed that it might take 18 months to find a vaccine. We disagreed with and took issue with all his other baseless claims. Thanks for cherry picking the one point no one took issue with. Now try and let him cite his other baseless claims.

Your obvious lack of citations to valid resources that we will be in lockdown for 18 months or longer, that all non essential businesses will be shut until 2022 shows your wilfull ignorance. Slappyland already stated yesterday he was wrong to equate lockdown with time to find a vaccine, yet here he is again today saying the two are one and the same.

[whiteness]

N.Y. Will Start Using Trial Drugs on Tuesday to Treat Patients

New York state will begin using trial drugs Tuesday to combat the rise in coronavirus cases, Governor Andrew Cuomo announced Sunday. The state has secured 70,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine, 10,000 of Zithromax, and 750,000 of chloroquine, he said during a news conference.

WHO launches global megatrial of the four most promising coronavirus treatments

A drug combo already used against HIV. A malaria treatment first tested during World War II. A new antiviral whose promise against Ebola fizzled last year.

Could any of these drugs hold the key to saving COVID-19 patients from serious harm or death? On Friday, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced a large global trial, called SOLIDARITY, to find out if any can treat infections with the new coronavirus for the dangerous respiratory disease. It’s an unprecedented effort—an all-out, coordinated push to collect robust scientific data rapidly during a pandemic. The study, which could include many thousands of patients in dozens of countries, has been designed to be as simple as possible so that even hospitals overwhelmed by an onslaught of COVID-19 patients can participate.

"Now this is not the end.
It is not even the beginning of the end.
But it is, perhaps,
the end of the beginning."

-- Sir Winston Churchill

And, finally...

Why worry? If you’ve done the very best you can, then worrying won’t make it any better.

-- Walt Disney

[Slappyland]

Mr. Wiggins, please respond to the actual issues that were disagreed with. I, nor anyone else, disagreed that it might take 18 months to find a vaccine. We disagreed with and took issue with all his other baseless claims. Thanks for cherry picking the one point no one took issue with. Now try and let him cite his other baseless claims.

Your obvious lack of citations to valid resources that we will be in lockdown for 18 months or longer, that all non essential businesses will be shut until 2022 shows your wilfull ignorance. Slappyland already stated yesterday he was wrong to equate lockdown with time to find a vaccine, yet here he is again today saying the two are one and the same.

I agree, the 2022 is extreme and a worst case Scenario. But the 18 month lock down is definitely likely. Read the first article Wiggins posted.

[hbdad]

I agree, the 2022 is extreme and a worst case Scenario. But the 18 month lock down is definitely likely. Read the first article Wiggins posted.

The article is a speculative article in that it talks about two different epidemiological goals. Suppression vs flattening the curve and various hypothetical approaches to tackling each. The one sentence that makes reference to “18 months” is speaking about social distancing, not shelter in place or lockdown as you describe. But a few paragraphs down, the authors say that to achieve suppression, governments would only need to social distance the entire population, do household quarantine, and close schools for 5 months. Not 18. And again these are hypotheticals. Not the certainty that you claim in your posts.

[hbdad]

So with the country on lock-down/quarantine for 18 months, how will Disneyland deal with the loss of not only losing out on 2 summer seasons, but also a Christmas season?
How can Disney afford to continue to pay it's employees until the fall of 2021, if the parks won't be open to generate income?

Also, Disney aside, I wonder how the world is going to get through the Christmas season this year when all the stores are going to be shut down, and families won't be allowed to travel to visit loved ones.

I’m just asking for a legitimate citation to these claims. You keep making them but you never offer a citation. Which politician said businesses will be closed for the rest of the year? Who said with the same level of certainty as you that we will be on lockdown for 18 months? Stop making these baseless claims.

[Sun Bonnet]

I don't suspect the country will be locked down for a year and a half. People are recovering from the virus naturally, without the vaccine. However, the virus is a still a threat to those with special circumstances(the elderly, pregnant women, and people with pre-existing conditions).

24-27% of non-elderly people have pre-existing conditions. Here are some sources: https://www.kff.org/health-reform/is...-and-families/

and https://news.gallup.com/poll/245108/...condition.aspx

The percentage of elderly in the population is 16%. So about 40% of people are at a moderate to high risk for having a serious reaction to COVID-19. Also in the linked poll above, 44% of households have at least one member with a pre-existing condition so even if you are 100% healthy, someone close to you may be at risk.

People who have completely recovered and are no longer at risk of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 won't need to be on lockdown.

"It's unclear whether people who recover from COVID-19 will be immune to reinfection from the coronavirus and, if so, how long that immunity will last." - https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...of-coronavirus

Misinformation that causes fear and panic is very irresponsible and dangerous.

That goes both ways. All this insistence that the parks will re-open soon, some in this forum are saying in May or June even, is also frightening for those of us who want the lockdown to continue to help flatten the curve, which - as mentioned above - involves at minimum 5 months of lockdown. Many people aren't even taking the lockdown seriously yet so that's probably just going to lengthen it while mayors and governors work to get cooperation.

Disneyland, Knotts, USH, MM, and all other parks will reopen soon. There is no way the USA will survive with businesses being closed down.

Remember when this really hit the news, we were hearing 4% of people who had it were dying. The number is only around 1% for USA cases. Stop worrying. Enjoy life.

...Where did you hear this? Betting you won't post any link. And please don't give us the "friend of a friend who works in the federal government" told me answer.

Why don't you post a link? You sure threw out a bunch of opinions and stats with no source for someone who is demanding a source from others.

[TacAlert]

I agree, the 2022 is extreme and a worst case Scenario. But the 18 month lock down is definitely likely. Read the first article Wiggins posted.

Still waiting for that link to prove your numbers. Will probably have to wait longer than it will take to reopen the parks.

[GwenRowan]

same as most, in spite of the media dialogue of this as a super virus that will change the world... most have a season and mutate into something else
we have seen deadly virus before

this is the first time there has been an attempt to prevent the deadly effects

consider the news aspects of this
difficult to assess the actual situation when the news media are actually more valuable in a crisis

[GwenRowan]

You've been hearing correctly. It's unfortunate that other posters would rather attack you than do a few seconds of research:

University of Minnesota Center for Infections Disease Research and Policy: "Modeling study suggests 18 months of COVID-19 social distancing, much disruption"

New York Times: "U.S. Virus Plan Anticipates 18-Month Pandemic and Widespread Shortages"

Live Science: "Coronavirus pandemic could last over 18 months, according to a federal plan"

the new york times editor was recorded saying the know the russia hoax was a hoax but continue to publish it because it sells newspapers
one of their many fake news reports

live science, who stated off brilliantly, shows, was it, 7,000 more deaths to last seasons seasonal flu than the CDC

[brett]

"impending summer heat" - i think if this were true, Australia would be clear of getting it right now as their summer season just ended and it's been rather scorching down under. Fires, floods, then this.