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Could this study indicate smaller crowds whenever Disneyland reopens?

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  • [Chat] Could this study indicate smaller crowds whenever Disneyland reopens?

    I found this study that was done by Seton Hall University that indicates 72% of Americans would not attend sporting events until a vaccine is developed. For die hard fans that number decreases to 61% which is still significant.

    The reason I bring this up here is that this is the closest estimate we have to how many people might show up to Disneyland whenever it reopens, considering that this will likely happen before there is a vaccine.

    I know this study focuses on professional sports but I have a feeling that the data relating to Disneyland would be very similar.

    What do you think? Does this study indicate the volume of guests that we can expect to see? Is Disneyland immune to any dip in attendance post-opening? Or might there be a dip but some other figure besides those mentioned in this study?

    https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...vid-19-vaccine

  • #2
    Very interesting article. I think the challenge of coronavirus safety will be considerably greater for theme parks than sporting events, for multiple reasons -- including crowd movement (compare the number of locations that a guest will visit at a theme park vs. an attendee who is seated at a sporting event); visitor interaction (compare the number of people that a guest will "rub shoulders with" at a theme park vs. an attendee at a sporting event); the necessity of theme park visitors to exit and re-enter during their visit (to go to their hotel, their car, off-site restaurants, etc.); and the greater length of a theme park visit vs. a sporting event.
    "Disneyland is often called a magic kingdom because
    it combines fantasy and history, adventure and learning,
    together with every variety of recreation and fun,
    designed to appeal to everyone."

    - Walt Disney

    "Disneyland is all about turning movies into rides."
    - Michael Eisner

    "It's very symbiotic."
    - Bob Chapek

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    • #3
      I think we're in such uncharted territory that we aren't going to know what will happen until it happens.

      Right now people are scared and vowing that they will never, ever <insert behavior here>. But we're also sort of 'herd creatures' who will change our behavior based on what others are doing. If people see other people going to events, venues, or theme parks, they'll start to 'follow that lead'.

      "Life is not about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about learning to dance in the rain.​"

      Comment


      • #4
        I think the idea of 'just this one time......I'll be ok' will be a strong motivation to visit.

        Plus the kids whining and sniveling because everyone else is going.

        Comment


        • #5
          To me DLR will be busting at the seams when it opens. WDW not so much.
          These are some of my favorite TRs I have posted

          DL 55th BDAY trip report
          My company had a special night at the park
          WdW trip report with WWoHP
          NYE 2011 trip report
          Mice Chat 7th anniversary
          Leap year 24 hour report
          New DCA trip report
          NYE 2012
          HKDL trip report

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by biggsworth View Post
            To me DLR will be busting at the seams when it opens. WDW not so much.
            Yes. The 39% who said they will go - that's enough people within a hour's drive to completely fill the parks.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by biggsworth View Post
              To me DLR will be busting at the seams when it opens. WDW not so much.
              That's an interesting thought! Why do you think that about WDW? Bigger 'area' to fill up with crowds & traditionally less local visitation? (Not challenging, just wondering)

              We're going again May 2021. I'd love to see lower crowds but I have a feeling that things will be back to 'normal' by then. Whatever 'normal' means after this.
              "Life is not about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about learning to dance in the rain.​"

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Stormy View Post

                That's an interesting thought! Why do you think that about WDW? Bigger 'area' to fill up with crowds & traditionally less local visitation? (Not challenging, just wondering)

                We're going again May 2021. I'd love to see lower crowds but I have a feeling that things will be back to 'normal' by then. Whatever 'normal' means after this.
                My thought is all of the planning it takes to go to WDW. Plus their AP population isn't like DLR. A lot of people in SoCal with APs are going to be itching to go when it opens. WDW people have been cancelling trips that they have planned for years and will plan again but at a later date. Now AP blackouts may need to be adjusted in order to get crowds back if they are able to open during a summer month where most APs are blocked.
                These are some of my favorite TRs I have posted

                DL 55th BDAY trip report
                My company had a special night at the park
                WdW trip report with WWoHP
                NYE 2011 trip report
                Mice Chat 7th anniversary
                Leap year 24 hour report
                New DCA trip report
                NYE 2012
                HKDL trip report

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by biggsworth View Post

                  My thought is all of the planning it takes to go to WDW. Plus their AP population isn't like DLR. A lot of people in SoCal with APs are going to be itching to go when it opens. WDW people have been cancelling trips that they have planned for years and will plan again but at a later date. Now AP blackouts may need to be adjusted in order to get crowds back if they are able to open during a summer month where most APs are blocked.
                  Yes, that does make sense!
                  "Life is not about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about learning to dance in the rain.​"

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I could be wrong in my analysis, but I think Disneyland is anticipating normal crowds when park re-opens. On their hotels website, you can make reservations beginning June 1. Yet they haven't reduced any rates or offered any summer promos to attract guests. They're still offering their normal sky high prices. This may change, but at least as of now, it's business as usual for them.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Unfortunately, human beings have a short attention span. Once things are up and running again and the news media has moved on to Biden v Trump or whatever other disasters happen, people will start to behave just like we did before all of this happened. It will take time. A year from now you won’t be able to tell the difference between before coronavirus and after.
                      That being said, I would hope humanity as a whole uses this pandemic to better ourselves and change they way we do things, but I just don’t see it happening. Look at how many people are standing firm in their beliefs that this is all a hoax and a small flu, Bill Gates wants us vaccinated and 5G towers are poising us. Or just the far right Trump supporters who are screaming about our freedoms being taken away. If a global pandemic can’t bring us together, then nothing will.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by hbdad View Post
                        I could be wrong in my analysis, but I think Disneyland is anticipating normal crowds when park re-opens. On their hotels website, you can make reservations beginning June 1. Yet they haven't reduced any rates or offered any summer promos to attract guests. They're still offering their normal sky high prices. This may change, but at least as of now, it's business as usual for them.
                        Fascinating, perhaps this is just a trial for them to see where consumer demand is. They will be very reticent to lower prices on anything as it would be an admission of market change.

                        I could see them prefer to run hotels at 10-20% capacity at current prices rather than 50% or more at lower prices. I don't know their operational break even point, but I'm sure they are planning for it.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by hbdad View Post
                          I could be wrong in my analysis, but I think Disneyland is anticipating normal crowds when park re-opens. On their hotels website, you can make reservations beginning June 1. Yet they haven't reduced any rates or offered any summer promos to attract guests. They're still offering their normal sky high prices. This may change, but at least as of now, it's business as usual for them.
                          This doesn't surprise me one bit nor do I think it's 'predictive'. They know that people will pay their prices, or at least 'reserve' at their prices. Frankly, I'd do it myself if I were contemplating staying onsite. Typically I think most people reserve at whatever price is offered then we check repeatedly for better offers and call if there is a price drop.
                          "Life is not about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about learning to dance in the rain.​"

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I know it's a little selfish and wouldn't bode well for Disney's pocketbook (and by extension, the Guest experience) but I wouldn't mind seeing crowds return to like.. DCA 2001 opening levels for just a little while when the parks re-open. My wife would always tell me stories about Comic-Con being virtually empty (which I never got to experience) and I would always tell her stories about days when the parks would be virtually empty (something she never got to be a part of) and would love nothing more than to be able to take her to experience something like that at least once. Being able to walk up to the Blue Bayou (or any table service for that matter) on virtually any day and just have them take you right in and little to no waits for major attractions, that sort of thing. I know less Guest spending means less investment pumped back into the Guest experience but hey.. I did say it would be a selfish thing for me to ask, hah.
                            "I take no side. I am beyond your worrying and wars. I am unseen. Unknowable. Like a rock in the river."

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Blurr View Post
                              I know it's a little selfish and wouldn't bode well for Disney's pocketbook (and by extension, the Guest experience) but I wouldn't mind seeing crowds return to like.. DCA 2001 opening levels for just a little while when the parks re-open. My wife would always tell me stories about Comic-Con being virtually empty (which I never got to experience) and I would always tell her stories about days when the parks would be virtually empty (something she never got to be a part of) and would love nothing more than to be able to take her to experience something like that at least once. Being able to walk up to the Blue Bayou (or any table service for that matter) on virtually any day and just have them take you right in and little to no waits for major attractions, that sort of thing. I know less Guest spending means less investment pumped back into the Guest experience but hey.. I did say it would be a selfish thing for me to ask, hah.
                              At this point I admittedly would not mind this either, there was a huge difference between our trips in 2012 and the last one in 2018 even. And to be frank, outside of park expansion the money from guests does not seem to filter too much back in terms of value added services these days. We have a trip planned in December, still in a wait and see before we pull the trigger or not, but I definitely wouldn't complain if it was less crowded. For me too, it might be a bit of a wake up call that the company needs, no one can plan for this; but if people don't return in droves to their product it might signal to the upper brass that they are in fact not bullet proof, no one is.

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Originally posted by biggsworth View Post
                                To me DLR will be busting at the seams when it opens. WDW not so much.
                                And I will be there!!!
                                "And yes, we implore EVERYBODY to follow the park rules. Having off-ride footage is great, but any still photo's or video's taken ON the coasters at SFMM are strictly against the rules. They are there for your (and everybody's) safety." "Six Flags doesn't allow ANY loose articles on their coasters, and they don't allow video taping on their coasters. " BUT, "​ This is not true. Six Flags does not allow ANY On-Ride video or pictures on the rides. The ONLY way is if you get explicit permission from Park Management." ???

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                                • #17
                                  Originally posted by micromind View Post
                                  I think the idea of 'just this one time......I'll be ok' will be a strong motivation to visit.

                                  Plus the kids whining and sniveling because everyone else is going.
                                  That's a good thought. And the addiction so many AP's have with the park. I know people who would go there for 2 hours after work every week day. And the clubs on facebook where people are buying tents so they can camp out the day it reopens. This may not end well.

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    While there will be plenty of people who will choose not to visit the parks, if schools are out and many adults are not in the office, the demand for parks will be high. Disney does not need a majority of the population to want to come. In fact, right before the country shut down, many individuals were already against these large gatherings, yet Disney and other large attendance operators like ski resorts were welcoming a record number of guests. This is a large part of the reason why the government had to intervene so swiftly, as people will show up if they are open.

                                    Comment

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