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  • [Chat] Likely Casualties Upon Reopening

    When the parks eventually reopen, there will definitely be a massive drive to compensate for lost revenue via cost-cutting. What is most likely to get the axe to achieve this?
    Disney visits over the years:
    • Disneyland, December 2000 (plus Legoland)
    • Disneyland, Summer 2003 (plus Legoland, SeaWorld, San Diego Zoo, San Diego Model Railroad Museum, and Knott's Berry Farm)
    • Disneyland, December 26, 2004-January 2, 2005 (mom's 40th birthday at Plaza Inn; New Year's at Disneyland)
    • Disneyland, July 2005 (Pre-Disney Cruise visit)
    • Walt Disney World, December 15-25, 2006 (plus Kennedy Space Center)
    • Disneyland, August 2007
    • Disneyland, July 1-4, 2009
    • Disneyland, July 2011 (plus Universal Studios)
    • Disneyland, November 2011 (dad's 50th birthday)
    • Disneyland, June 2013
    • Walt Disney World, July-August 2013 (plus Universal CityWalk)
    • Disneyland, June 7-8 2014
    • Disneyland, December 27-31 2014 (mom's 50th birthday; my tenth visit)
    • Disneyland, Summer 2015 (plus Universal Studios)

  • #2
    If they were smart they won't cut too much. They are going to have to do one heck of a job selling the place to get a lot of people to return there. Other than the local AP crowd, I don't see the masses itching to go a crowded theme park anytime soon.

    Comment


    • #3
      I agree, they are going to have to entice people. If they make everything cut-rate, it will further drive people away, especially in a tight economic climate.

      People aren't going to spend their hard earned money for third rate quality, service, food, etc.

      If Disney gets cheap and quality goes through the floor, their recovery will take MUCH longer, if they ever recover.

      Comment


      • #4
        I don’t think Disney will go cheap, but I do think there will be missing content to help reduce generating large crowds for at least the foreseeable future (the rest of 2020). These missing elements may have a cost savings associated with them meaning it will be an easy choice for them to make.

        At first, I expect hours to be reduced to non-peak schedules. Maybe open till 8pm at the latest.

        Parades, shows and fireworks (anything that usually generates larger crowds) will probably not happen for a while.

        Lastly, and this one may be a big problem for families with small kids, I bet that character meet and greets will either be very different or not allowed at all. I doubt that character cast members will be very comfortable having direct contact with guests before a vaccine is available.

        I think most rides will be up and running. It’ll be interesting to see if virtual queues get used on more attractions.
        Mike_M

        Disneyland Trips
        Walt Disney World
        Disneyland Paris

        1980, 1982, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1989
        1990, 1992, 1993

        2000, 2001, 2006, 2007, 2009
        2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2016, 2017, 2/2019, 11/2019
        2020

        Comment


        • #5
          I think most (non AP locals) people just won't go at all if the virus is still a concern. And some people may want to go but cannot do to job/income loss. We are moving towards 23 million people out of work. And many of the people who are still employed are worried about the future of those jobs. Whenever Disney does open I see multiple down years as a result of all of this. Just remember back after the last housing crash. I think it will be like that and possibly worse. I didn't lose my job back then and my wife and I enjoyed going to the parks then. Especially DCA before Carsland. That place was truly dead but it was a pleasure to go and the place was not crowded at all. It was usually dead. But now I'm honestly worried about this virus. I'm in good health without any significant risk factors but the unknown aspect of this virus concerns me. I was listening to Doctor Radio today on SirusXM and some of the doctors say they are seeing neurological effects of the virus now. This thing either keeps changing or the doctors do not know near enough for me to feel comfortable rolling the dice and going anywhere near a crowded place anytime soon unless a real treatment is developed.

          Comment


          • #6
            We may want to rename the thread, as it accidentally sounds a bit morbid

            Originally posted by Mike_M View Post
            I don’t think Disney will go cheap, but I do think there will be missing content to help reduce generating large crowds for at least the foreseeable future (the rest of 2020). These missing elements may have a cost savings associated with them meaning it will be an easy choice for them to make.

            At first, I expect hours to be reduced to non-peak schedules. Maybe open till 8pm at the latest.

            Parades, shows and fireworks (anything that usually generates larger crowds) will probably not happen for a while.

            Lastly, and this one may be a big problem for families with small kids, I bet that character meet and greets will either be very different or not allowed at all. I doubt that character cast members will be very comfortable having direct contact with guests before a vaccine is available.

            I think most rides will be up and running. It’ll be interesting to see if virtual queues get used on more attractions.
            I agree that the following is likely to happen. I'm going to add that:
            -Avengers E- Ticket is delayed, shelved or canceled

            -Disneyland Hotel 4th Tower will also be either delayed, shelved or canceled(leaning into the latter options

            -I would be surprised if Mickey's and Minnie's Runaway Railway was canceled, as ground already broke. Delayed likely to late 2022 or early 2023.

            -All current or priorty refurbishments will be completed. Anything cosmetic or unnecessary will be delayed or canceled.

            -Low attendance rides(like the Canoes or Lincoln) may be temporary closed to save funds. Expensive Rides may remain closed(like the subs).

            -It will be a long time before Magic Happens returns(which premiered at the wrong time unfortunately). Ditto for Fantasmic and WOC

            -If the parks do reopen soon, Haunted Mansion will likely remain closed until the Fall and reopen as Haunted Mansion Holliday. And regular HM wouldn't return until 2021.

            Comment


            • #7
              Hi you guys!! I know one thing that's not gunna return in any meaningful way and that's DLR Entertainment. Heard from my peeps today and yesterday there was a big video conference with all the top management and TDA executives because it was their last day before almost all of them were furloughed cause only the Vice Presidents and above get to keep their jobs.

              The executives were crying on the conference call! It was sad and there was no good news about anything. Expect massive layoffs later this summer and then another round of layoffs once the parks reopen in the fall. Don't expect theater shows, parades or night spectaculars to perform at Disneyland for a long time, which will require massive layoffs of hourly performers and huge layoffs of Tech Services Cast.

              When the executives leading the conference call are crying openly, you know its gunna be bad! The executives know stuff we don't and know the future of Disneyland is looking dimmer and dimmer by the week. If Disneyland reopens late this year or in 2022 it will still take years to recover and rebuild the huge amounts of CM's that are going to be lost this year to layoffs and all the CM's who leave on their own because they are fed up with working in a Non-Essential Industry like Disneyland.

              The TDA executives are crying for a reason!!!

              Comment


              • #8
                Given the new information coming from medical researchers almost daily, the impact of this crisis to the theme park industry in general and to Disney's costly-to-run resorts in particular may be more severe and longer lasting than we've thought. This situation goes far beyond whether current Parks management is habitually cheap or spends like Walt himself -- it's about making the hard choices necessary to protect the Company from any attempts at a takeover.
                "Disneyland is often called a magic kingdom because
                it combines fantasy and history, adventure and learning,
                together with every variety of recreation and fun,
                designed to appeal to everyone."

                - Walt Disney

                "Disneyland is all about turning movies into rides."
                - Michael Eisner

                "It's very symbiotic."
                - Bob Chapek

                Comment


                • #9
                  Thank you so muchLilMonsterPageantHelper for your update. I suspected that this might be the case from some of the news and reports we've heard, but your reports really brings it home in ways the others do not. I am very thankful you are part of our community here.

                  This is unprecedented and the impact looks like it will be far greater than many ever thought.

                  Truly, the biggest existential threat to Disneyland we've ever seen.

                  My heart goes out to all the CM's who are hurting and have taken such loss. Many many wonderful people and a cross section of how much damage this disease has brought to people.

                  This is real world, real lives impacted. It is all so tragic.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Even when we do actually "reopen the economy," it's very likely things that bring together large groups, like theaters, arenas, attending sports and concerts, and theme parks will be kept closed until there's a vaccine, which is probably at least a year away.

                    Looks like Disney execs are planning on how to survive with 50%+ less revenue for the foreseeable future.
                    "Disneyland is a work of love. We didn't go into Disneyland just with the idea of making money." - ​Walt Disney

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by greenalfonzo View Post
                      Even when we do actually "reopen the economy," it's very likely things that bring together large groups, like theaters, arenas, attending sports and concerts, and theme parks will be kept closed until there's a vaccine, which is probably at least a year away.

                      Looks like Disney execs are planning on how to survive with 50%+ less revenue for the foreseeable future.

                      As we learn more about this virus, and the way if affects people of all age groups, it really does seem unlikely that Disney parks will reopen before there is a vaccine. There is just so much involved with getting trained CMs out there, buying restaurant supplies, etc., etc., that could then all go to waste with the first new outbreak.
                      Heartbreaking. Truly heartbreaking.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I think Mickey's and Avengers will get delayed.

                        Fireworks and other love shows that get lots of people in one spot will also be missing until a vaccine is mass produced
                        Happy Halloween!!!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          For one thing, building their employee ranks back up is going to be a challenge.

                          Disney stops paying 100,000 workers to save $500m a month.

                          "...even as the company protects executive bonus schemes and a $1.5bn dividend payment due in July."


                          https://www.ft.com/content/db574838-...d-75039f8cb288
                          Last edited by stovk; 04-20-2020, 03:43 AM.
                          “Not the least hard thing to bear when they go from us, these quiet friends, is that they carry away with them
                          so many years of our own lives.”


                          DL Trips: '58, '59, '61, '65, '66, '67, '68x2, '69x2, '70x2, '71x2, '73x2, '74x2, '75x2, '76x2, '77, '78,x2, '79x2, '80x2, '81, '82, '83, '88, '89x3, '90x2, '91, '93, '94, '95x2, '96, '97, '98x4, '99, '00, '01, '02, '03, '04, '05, '06, '07x2, '08, '09x2, '10, '11, '13
                          WDW Trips: '81
                          EPCOT Trips: '93
                          Tokyo DL Trips: '86

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by stovk View Post
                            For one thing, building their employee ranks back up is going to be a challenge.
                            Indeed.

                            "We’re headed into a very, very deep recession; almost certainly it’s going to be substantially deeper than the financial crisis of ten-twelve years ago. We’ve going to have massive unemployment -- over 15% for sure, maybe 20% or more, and it’s going to go on for a long time. Some people think it’s going to be one of these V-things where the economy immediately snaps back as soon as we come out of this.... I don’t think it’s going to be like that. I talk to lots of CEOs at lots of companies, who talk about the fact that they’re going to be slow to rehire. They’re going to be cutting capital expenditure budgets. Nobody believes that industries like travel and restaurants are going to come snapping back."
                            - Steve Rattner, April 20, 2020
                            Former U.S. Treasury Official
                            MSNBC Economic Analyst
                            "Disneyland is often called a magic kingdom because
                            it combines fantasy and history, adventure and learning,
                            together with every variety of recreation and fun,
                            designed to appeal to everyone."

                            - Walt Disney

                            "Disneyland is all about turning movies into rides."
                            - Michael Eisner

                            "It's very symbiotic."
                            - Bob Chapek

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Mr Wiggins View Post

                              Indeed.

                              "We’re headed into a very, very deep recession; almost certainly it’s going to be substantially deeper than the financial crisis of ten-twelve years ago. We’ve going to have massive unemployment -- over 15% for sure, maybe 20% or more, and it’s going to go on for a long time. Some people think it’s going to be one of these V-things where the economy immediately snaps back as soon as we come out of this.... I don’t think it’s going to be like that. I talk to lots of CEOs at lots of companies, who talk about the fact that they’re going to be slow to rehire. They’re going to be cutting capital expenditure budgets. Nobody believes that industries like travel and restaurants are going to come snapping back."
                              - Steve Rattner, April 20, 2020
                              Former U.S. Treasury Official
                              MSNBC Economic Analyst
                              Welcome to Capitalism.....it sadly happens on a cycle and we were due for something to push us into a deep recession or depression. We have had it for so good for so long that people forget about this. My grandparents were really young during the depression but the stories they can tell and could tell are heart wrenching, they also said that the 1980s collapse and the 2008 collapse were nothing in comparison, especially the 2008 which was overwhelmingly localized in the united states. I hope we come out of it quicker than analysts are predicting, no one wants to see people suffer.

                              Disney related, they are gonna be hit hard. It is a premium bonus product and those that still keep their jobs are going to be weighing their needs versus an expensive vacation or AP. We are currently at 600 USD average a night for the GCH....perspective....how many weeks would a single night feed a family of four; those are the questions many people are going to be asking themselves, it is easy to forget that if you are only marginally disrupted by this event.

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Originally posted by Mr Wiggins View Post

                                Indeed.

                                "We’re headed into a very, very deep recession; almost certainly it’s going to be substantially deeper than the financial crisis of ten-twelve years ago. We’ve going to have massive unemployment -- over 15% for sure, maybe 20% or more, and it’s going to go on for a long time. Some people think it’s going to be one of these V-things where the economy immediately snaps back as soon as we come out of this.... I don’t think it’s going to be like that. I talk to lots of CEOs at lots of companies, who talk about the fact that they’re going to be slow to rehire. They’re going to be cutting capital expenditure budgets. Nobody believes that industries like travel and restaurants are going to come snapping back."
                                - Steve Rattner, April 20, 2020
                                Former U.S. Treasury Official
                                MSNBC Economic Analyst
                                Sorry, but with all due respect (and not to turn this into a Tom Chaney debate), but isn't that the same Steve Rattner who predicted, "If the unlikely event happens and Trump wins (the Presidency), you will see a market crash of historic proportions, I think ... The markets are terrified of him."

                                I'm leery of a lot of predictions lately.
                                * Statistics is the art of never having to say you’re wrong.

                                * 99.9% of people involved in auto accidents ate carrots within 60-days before the accident.


                                * Among people born in 1839 who later dined on carrots, there has been a 100% mortality rate.

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Originally posted by Jar.Jar.Abrams View Post
                                  Sorry, but with all due respect (and not to turn this into a Tom Chaney debate), but isn't that the same Steve Rattner who predicted, "If the unlikely event happens and Trump wins (the Presidency), you will see a market crash of historic proportions, I think ... The markets are terrified of him."

                                  I'm leery of a lot of predictions lately.
                                  Fair enough. But Rattner aside, the economic predictions are similar from all sources -- a reflection less of the analyst doing the reporting and more of the CEOs' increasingly grim view of the future of their own businesses.

                                  "Disneyland is often called a magic kingdom because
                                  it combines fantasy and history, adventure and learning,
                                  together with every variety of recreation and fun,
                                  designed to appeal to everyone."

                                  - Walt Disney

                                  "Disneyland is all about turning movies into rides."
                                  - Michael Eisner

                                  "It's very symbiotic."
                                  - Bob Chapek

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    Originally posted by BNSF1995 View Post
                                    When the parks eventually reopen, there will definitely be a massive drive to compensate for lost revenue via cost-cutting. What is most likely to get the axe to achieve this?
                                    I'm sure there will be some cuts (hopefully not too drastic) but I would hope they would try to entice Guests to return by returning to normal ASAP and maybe offering some incentives. IDK, just hoping I suppose.
                                    We need another Walt...and fast!

                                    "It's always more difficult to recover than it is to do the right thing at the beginning" - Tony Baxter,
                                    The Imagineering Story, Episode 4 "Hit or Miss"

                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      Originally posted by stovk View Post
                                      For one thing, building their employee ranks back up is going to be a challenge.

                                      Disney stops paying 100,000 workers to save $500m a month.

                                      "...even as the company protects executive bonus schemes and a $1.5bn dividend payment due in July."


                                      https://www.ft.com/content/db574838-...d-75039f8cb288
                                      Disney has become a truly sleazy company. Paying 1.5 billion in dividends to stock holders and untold amounts in executive bonuses this year. I hope Disney is bought out by a company with an ounce of class because Disney's leadership has truly lost its way.

                                      The one silver lining in this is since Disney stopped paying their employees but are still planning on paying stock dividens, they will not be eligblie for any government bailout so that puts them at tremendous risk of a takeover by another company, all due to Igor's greed and stupidity. If it does come to that, hopefully a good company takes them over and cares about the theme park business.

                                      Comment


                                      • #20
                                        It's going to sound silly but my biggest fear upon re-opening will be a cut to the quality/investment in food services. I've never been that big on entertainment (Remember.. Dreams Come True and Fantasmic! were the last shows that I ever truly bothered to go out of my way to see) but I've been enjoying Disney's investment, experimentation and overall increase in quality where food offerings were concerned. I know the new churros and specially themed plates may have seemed "eye-rolly" to some but I loved that they were mixing it up and trying new things frequently for their local crowd. Gone were the days where most menus were simply slight variations of standard theme park burger/fries/chicken, etc. and you'd have to visit something like Blue Bayou to really reach outside the box (-and heck, even they were serving Mickey Mouse chicken nuggets!). Most, if not all of the restaurants in the resort were now offering something unique to that venue that made me want to try it all and decision making in regards with where to eat all the more fun (-and difficult).

                                        I know it's going to happen but when Disney re-opens, I fear we'll be looking at a lot more generic menu items across the park for a good while. Yeah, that is my guess for most likely causality upon reopening (if for no other reason than to mentally prepare myself for it).
                                        Last edited by Blurr; 04-21-2020, 08:15 AM. Reason: Spelling
                                        "I take no side. I am beyond your worrying and wars. I am unseen. Unknowable. Like a rock in the river."

                                        Comment

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