POLL When Disney reopens, will it be dead?

[tarheelalum]

When Disneyland reopens do you think it wil return to its near capacity status as if nothing happened? Obviously it seems they will institute caps on attendance but will they be needed in the summer with most passholders blocked out? I suspect current signature passholders will show up but will Disney draw the out of town guests in significant numbers? Will those guests be willing to pay through the nose for Disneyland's hotels? Will Disneyland cut prices to the bone to pack the crowds in? Or will the reopening be like last summer when Galaxy's Edge flopped and nobody showed up after the first few days? Is Disneyland in store for multiple down years and nothing can be done to change that?

[biggsworth]

I picked the first option but I feel it will as crowded as Disney lets it be. If they open with full capacity enabled it will sell out. If they cut it to 50% capacity it will sell out as well but not be able to become jammed pack. They have so much to consider. If they open to 50% capacity the good neighbor hotels will suffer as no one will be guaranteed admission. This isn't going to be pretty.

[JacobR22]

Just out of curiosity, what type of insight; knowledge; savvy; is going into answers to this poll, or is it just personal opinion? Thanks.

[linkeq2001]

I picked the first option but I feel it will as crowded as Disney lets it be. If they open with full capacity enabled it will sell out. If they cut it to 50% capacity it will sell out as well but not be able to become jammed pack. They have so much to consider. If they open to 50% capacity the good neighbor hotels will suffer as no one will be guaranteed admission. This isn't going to be pretty.

Disney is going to have to adjust some policies to make sure people with vacations have a means to enter, maybe not immediately on opening but certainly a few months down the road. AP or Day Pass, if someone booked a hotel nearby and a flight they aren't gonna be getting refunds if states of emergency are lifted. If Disney shifts to a "dated ticket" they may have some system where if you can prove your stay your are guaranteed entry that day.....overall economy is not gonna be in good shape, not going to want to burn bridges with guests coming to spend......

[WaltDisney'sAlec]

I think this will be similar in experience to the soft-opening of SW:GE. Pent-up demand exists, but allowing admission to be reservation-only will drive the illusion of demand even further. When those restrictions (reservation requirements, not just social distancing) are finally eased, you might see high demand for the next week before it drops off.

At this point, they're going to need to rely on APs to keep the parks full because I really don't think people will be itching to travel or even spend disposable income on the parks (especially if they're locals who had their finances impacted). The problem is, Disney is really doing the bare minimum in treating APs well right now. They've paused monthly payments and offered extensions for the length of the closure period. But if APs can't get reservations and our passes expire during that time, I can't imagine many people renewing blindly at the new increased prices as entertainment offerings are cut. Without a more concrete roadmap for how things are looking in a year's time (vaccine, herd immunity, budget cuts in the parks), it's all very up in the air.

[JerrodDRagon]

My guess doesn't have an option but think Disneyland and even DCA (once marvel opens up) will be fine. Maybe not always packed but at 20-50% think most days will be packed its once they open up from there they mayyyyy have to just do some deals but think even then the parks are mainly for locals.
Yes people come here from other places but unlike many other parks we have LOTS of locals and should be fine unless the entire world just decides in like 2 years to still not be traveling

[Mr Wiggins]

I think making the DLR turn even a modest profit is going to be a long struggle for Disney -- three or four years, in any case. The economy cannot recover until consumers are confident that the pandemic is under control, and it's nowhere near that -- we're heading toward a series of explosions in the infection rate and death rate, caused by states relaxing stay-at-home orders before there is comprehensive testing and contact tracing. The numbers in California are getting worse. The virus keeps throwing us surprises -- there is new evidence that children may be at risk of becoming infected.

Poll after poll shows the majority of consumers don't want businesses opening too early. People are saving more and spending less, out of fear that their jobs may disappear. As a result, prices are falling at an alarming rate.

I have no idea how any large theme park that caters primarily to what we used to call the middle and upper-middle economic class, will be able to avoid hemorrhaging money for the next several years. DLR, with its ginormous operating costs and premium prices, seems particularly vulnerable.

[JerrodDRagon]

I think making the DLR turn even a modest profit is going to be a long struggle for Disney -- three or four years, in any case. The economy cannot recover until consumers are confident that the pandemic is under control, and it's nowhere near that -- we're heading toward a series of explosions in the infection rate and death rate, caused by states relaxing stay-at-home orders before there is comprehensive testing and contact tracing. The numbers in California are getting worse. The virus keeps throwing us surprises -- there is new evidence that children are being infected.

Poll after poll shows the majority of consumers don't want businesses opening too early. People are saving more and spending less, out of fear that their jobs may disappear. As a result, prices are falling at an alarming rate.

I have no idea how any large theme park that caters primarily to what we used to call the middle and upper-middle economic class, will be able to avoid hemorrhaging money for the next several years. DLR, with its ginormous operating costs and premium prices, seems particularly vulnerable.

People don't want to be staying inside for 60 days....in Three years if there is no cure. I doubt many will care any more and just live life. Sure some people will love in fear but most in a few years rather risk it over living a life where you do nothing fun.

[Mr Wiggins]

People don't want to be staying inside for 60 days....in Three years if there is no cure. I doubt many will care any more and just live life. Sure some people will love in fear but most in a few years rather risk it over living a life where you do nothing fun.

It's not a binary choice between "stay inside for three years in fear" and "live your life." Meaning no disrespect, reducing it to such simplistic either-or choices ignores the reality of what's happening in this state, this country and the world; and ridicules the hard decisions that people and companies have to make.

[JerrodDRagon]

It's not a binary choice between "stay inside for three years in fear" and "live your life." Meaning no disrespect, reducing it to such simplistic either-or choices ignores the reality of what's happening in this state, this country and the world; and ridicules the hard decisions that people and companies have to make.

There are two things you can do.

1) Stay inside and never leave and you will never get hurt
2) Leave your house and wear a mask and live your life

I for now can support the choice to not want to leave but if this is still going on in three years, I will be going back to the parks and living life just the same as before but with a mask on.
For now I get why many want to stay in but after a while if it's not going to get a cure then I see no harm with being outside if you are being safe about it.

[Mr Wiggins]

There are two things you can do.

1) Stay inside and never leave and you will never get hurt
2) Leave your house and wear a mask and live your life

I for now can support the choice to not want to leave but if this is still going on in three years, I will be going back to the parks and living life just the same as before but with a mask on.
For now I get why many want to stay in but after a while if it's not going to get a cure then I see no harm with being outside if you are being safe about it.

Once again, reducing everyone's choices to binary opposites trivializes the reality of what the country is facing, and ridicules the people and businesses who have been making -- and will continue to make -- hard decisions on a daily basis.

[Pips]

Once again, reducing everyone's choices to binary opposites trivializes the reality of what the country is facing, and ridicules the people and businesses who have been making -- and will continue to make -- hard decisions on a daily basis.

This is true. It really isn't all or nothing.

Personally, I anticipate doing a little bit of this and a little bit of that -- taking some calculated risks in order to just keep sane. Could that include a shortened day in a theme park, while wearing a mask? Possibly -- depending on how long this thing goes on. But then on the other hand, if this disease really runs amok and we are seeing a whole lot of sickness and death, I seriously doubt I'd find it "fun" to go to a crowded theme park. The heart just wouldn't be in it. No fun there.

These are complicated times.

[Mr Wiggins]

These new data aren't encouraging for the future of the theme park and tourism industries. How will such massive, prolonged unemployment affect the AP base that DLR relies on?

Goldman Sachs issues warning about US unemployment

"The unemployment rate in the United States will peak at 25%, rivaling the worst period of the Great Depression, Goldman Sachs warned on Wednesday....

The so-called real jobless rate, which captures the percentage of Americans who want a job but have given up trying to find one, surged to 22.8% in April. That was up from just 8.7% the month before.

Goldman Sachs warned Wednesday that the real jobless rate will peak at 35%, up from the bank's previous projection for a peak of 29%....

No matter where the unemployment peaks, economists have cautioned that it will take years, perhaps even more than a decade, to get the jobless rate back near pre-crisis levels...."

[Starcade]

Disney has a nightmare on their hands to figure out how to both put in place limits in capacity while not putting undo limits on AP'er ability to visit the park. Telling everyone with an AP they are all now in a Flexpass situation is going to cause a lot of people to cry foul and opening the park up to any ticket holder will cause a mass migration from outside the SoCal basin which governments also do not want. I wonder if they may just open the park to AP'ers at first as the vast majority of AP holders live locally so it will reduce migration while also reducing crowd numbers and allowing more opportunity for those that have already purchased entry via their Annual Pass. I could see them also honoring pre-purchased tickets.

[Blurr]

If they use the Shanghai model (which may or may not apply here, which is why I say "if"), then maybe not. Disney will be as busy as both they and the state allow them to be. Pent up demand probably won't matter if they only allow less than 30% capacity + hotel guests into the parks in order to ease back into things. So I guess the right answer is "nobody knows". If the state says they can only allow x% of people inside, the parks are probably going to seem dead to anyone inside simply because they're the lucky few who were allowed in that day.

Not sure how the rules are changing overseas on a day to day basis but again, over in Shanghai, the maximum allowed number of Guests Disney was selling tickets for on opening day hit its cap and all wait times were around 5 to 10 minutes. The next day, however, the wait times seemed to "normalize" to around 40 to 60 minutes for bigger attractions. So either they let more people in the second day, or some of the major attractions broke down and forced Guests into other experiences (shows and the like are still closed for the time being).

[jcruise86]

Only the ending of Mr. Toad & the entire Haunted Mansion will be dead.

(Along with, of course, some people who catch COVID-19.)

[JerrodDRagon]

Once again, reducing everyone's choices to binary opposites trivializes the reality of what the country is facing, and ridicules the people and businesses who have been making -- and will continue to make -- hard decisions on a daily basis.

I mean you do you but the minute I can go to the beach I will. There is almost NOTHING at a beach off PCH that could get me sick because the area is open and not really anything for me to touch. So why would I not go?

Theme parks sure there are arguments to be made on both sides but parks, beaches, hiking trails eating out doors at a restaurant you can do these just as safely now as in 6 months from now.

If they use the Shanghai model (which may or may not apply here, which is why I say "if"), then maybe not. Disney will be as busy as both they and the state allow them to be. Pent up demand probably won't matter if they only allow less than 30% capacity + hotel guests into the parks in order to ease back into things. So I guess the right answer is "nobody knows". If the state says they can only allow x% of people inside, the parks are probably going to seem dead to anyone inside simply because they're the lucky few who were allowed in that day.

Not sure how the rules are changing overseas on a day to day basis but again, over in Shanghai, the maximum allowed number of Guests Disney was selling tickets for on opening day hit its cap and all wait times were around 5 to 10 minutes. The next day, however, the wait times seemed to "normalize" to around 40 to 60 minutes for bigger attractions. So either they let more people in the second day, or some of the major attractions broke down and forced Guests into other experiences (shows and the like are still closed for the time being).

Do we have video of Q's with 40-60 mins waits? Like how are they separating that many people?

I hope they test Virtual Qing, I would love all rides from this point on to either have Q's made only for show like the Star Wars Q or none at all. I'd love a park where I go eat dinner and then go walk on rides but they need to test it first

[linkeq2001]

I mean you do you but the minute I can go to the beach I will. There is almost NOTHING at a beach off PCH that could get me sick because the area is open and not really anything for me to touch. So why would I not go?

Theme parks sure there are arguments to be made on both sides but parks, beaches, hiking trails eating out doors at a restaurant you can do these just as safely now as in 6 months from now.


Do we have video of Q's with 40-60 mins waits? Like how are they separating that many people?

I hope they test Virtual Qing, I would love all rides from this point on to either have Q's made only for show like the Star Wars Q or none at all. I'd love a park where I go eat dinner and then go walk on rides but they need to test it first

If wait times went that high my guess is they cut staffing to certain rides, or found that in order to properly clean things or maintain distancing they had to cycle slower.

I would be fine with the concept of virtual queues, but let's face it Disneyland cannot handle that. In fact virtually no park currently constructed could. Parks are designed to hold people in lines to free up sidewalk space. Take just the heavy hitters at Disneyland, on a busy sunny day if you took almost all of the people in line out of Indy, Splash, Pirates, Small World, Space Mountain, Big Thunder, and Haunted Mansion.......You'd have some very very crowded walkways. If Disney were building a new park, or anyone else for that matter, I am sure that infrastructure would be made with Virtual Qs in mind, but right now....

[Blurr]

Do we have video of Q's with 40-60 mins waits? Like how are they separating that many people?

I hope they test Virtual Qing, I would love all rides from this point on to either have Q's made only for show like the Star Wars Q or none at all. I'd love a park where I go eat dinner and then go walk on rides but they need to test it first

I don't have any links to videos of queues that are full, sorry. But they are handling it the same way they are handling spacing out pretty much everything; the queues have markers on the ground that tell people where NOT to stand (I imagine here it will be where they CAN stand since most big box stores are doing that).

Here's an (admittedly poor example since some folks aren't standing exactly where they need to be) example:



The same measures have been implemented around the park, all queues have these markings. In addition, every other table in dining locations have signs on them saying you cannot sit at them in order to spread people out and shops are requiring folks to use hand sanitizer before entering. Oh, and attractions are only filling up every other row. At the time it doesn't seem to be much of an issue with the reduced capacity.

I don't want to post a link to it but my wife showed me a video on YouTube from someone named TDRexplorer who had someone they know go to Shanghai and record pretty much their entire experience. In the video you can see a lot of how things are working their including queue/load spacing at Pirates, characters being kept out of reach from Guests, parades/shows being shortened, etc. etc. So I'd say check it out on your own if you want, since Chapek seemed to say it was going to be a guideline or test for how things may be handled at the other parks.

[Spongeocto4]

I don't understand why people think it's going to be packed again after reopening. Sure, the 1st week maybe. But, its becoming more noticeable that the economy is going suffer long after the disease goes away or subsidies down. Many people have become unemployed from the shut down, and their priorities are less likely on a vacation. I do think that APs will be able to booster the resort, though.

These times are making me remember how nearly 12 years ago, Kevin Yee wrote about the oil crisis and how it could affect negatively affect WDW. To the point WDW would need to close a park, one day per week. Granted, nothing that dramatic came about. But it's still a bit ominous today...

...[Walt] Disney World is stuck between the proverbial rock and a hard place. The real winners in an environment like this are the regional parks: Dollywood, Kennywood, and Hersheypark. All of them are near a large population base that will keep coming even with high gasoline prices. To that list we must responsibly add Anaheim's Disneyland. The SoCal market is sprawling, sure, but by and large it's just one big city, and people will still come to Disneyland. There's even a railroad connecting the area to Northern California.

None of the same demographics apply to Central Florida. The parks are way too large to be filled up by locals (heck, we all work there, or did once). WDW is stuck.