News Disneyland Opening DELAYED

[oceanbreeze77]

https://twitter.com/carlyewisel/stat...49561547157505

https://twitter.com/DisneyParksNews/...tfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1275949428474474497%7Ctwgr% 5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.%2Fthr eads%2Fcoronavirus-and-walt-disney-world-general-discussion.963478%2Fpage-1429

[Mr Wiggins]

That's good news for DLR. Now we'll have to see what they decide for WDW, in the light of a state government that has far more lax public health standards and a higher spike in COVID than does California. Will WDW do the right thing for the health of its employees and guests even if they have a green light from "government officials?"

[oceanbreeze77]

That's good news for DLR. Now we'll have to see what they decide for WDW, in the light of a state government that has far more lax public health standards and a higher spike in COVID Califorrnia. Will WDW do the right thing for the health its employees and guests even if they have a green light from "government officials?"

I think this gives them an easy out on both coasts.

[Mike_M]

I think this gives them an easy out on both coasts.

I don’t know yet. The language is very California specific, and it sounds more like they don’t have enough time to make it happen rather than an actual desire to stay closed.

For now, my money is on WDW keeping to the schedule.

[Blurr]

Interesting. I wonder if the other SoCal parks will see similar date pushbacks or if this will be another case of Disney being lonely at the top. If I'm not mistaken, the other parks are still targeting a July 1st re-opening?

Edit: I guess the other SoCal parks would HAVE to be pushed back if the state isn't giving specifics needed for re-opening until after the 4th?

[Mr Wiggins]

As a side note, Dustysage seems to have foreshadowed Disney's decision with his post in the comments section of this morning's Disney News Update, "Growing Reopening Concerns and Uncertainty."

"At the time Disney made their reopening plans, they had public sentiment behind them. Cases were dropping, people were growing tired of being at home. But since then, the US response to the Coronavirus has fallen apart. States are rushing to reopen everything they can. People are throwing caution to the wind and pretending this is all over. And that has caused a boomerang of infections. Florida and California in particular are seeing huge spikes. The death rate in the US remains a massive 11% (of all cases with an outcome). The public is just now starting to catch up to the fact that this is all very real. And that is likely to be causing grave concerns at Disney. I do think it's possible we'll see Disney pause their plans pending further direction from the CDC, their state health officers, and their own internal legal and health consultants. It would be quite the legal (and moral) liability to put guests and cast in harms way intentionally. I didn't feel that way two weeks ago either. I thought that with cases going down and Disney's ability to manage guests and sanitation, they'd safely be able to reopen. But it's clear that this virus has the upper hand right now and even Disney isn't going to be able to overcome the rising tide all around them."

[Grand Circle Tour]

Now delay Downtown Disney's opening. It's pointless for those businesses to open without the parks. A week on their own was doable. A month or more? Disastrous. Most of the business owners there are probably already telling Disney they want a delay.

[Grand Circle Tour]

I don’t know yet. The language is very California specific, and it sounds more like they don’t have enough time to make it happen rather than an actual desire to stay closed.

For now, my money is on WDW keeping to the schedule.

I agree. But my money is also on them having to close WDW down again in the near future. Disaster.

[WaltDisney'sAlec]

This was the right call, plain and simple.

[PhotoMatt]

I agree. But my money is also on them having to close WDW down again in the near future. Disaster.

Hospital capacity doesn't care about politics. This is not a political post. It's just a statement of fact. The current trajectory of new cases in Florida will lead to a situation in which hospital capacity is exceeded. At that point there will be no choice but to shut things down.

All decisions have consequences. The consequences of the decisions being made now will soon be realized.

This is unfortunate, because none of this needed to happen. None of it.

[oceanbreeze77]

Hospital capacity doesn't care about politics. This is not a political post. It's just a statement of fact. The current trajectory of new cases in Florida will lead to a situation in which hospital capacity is exceeded. At that point there will be no choice but to shut things down.

All decisions have consequences. The consequences of the decisions being made now will soon be realized.

This is unfortunate, because none of this needed to happen. None of it.

I wonder what impact this will have across the market

[tarheelalum]

As a side note, Dustysage seems to have foreshadowed Disney's decision with his post in the comments section of this morning's Disney News Update, "Growing Reopening Concerns and Uncertainty."

" The death rate in the US remains a massive 11% (of all cases with an outcome). "

That is disingenuous, at best. A death rate cannot be determined without knowing how many people have been infected. The real death rate is very low. Healthy adults below the age of 70 are not at all likely to die from this virus. Although that does not mean the virus is not serious, but it in no way is anything like it was initially sold to the American public.

[Mr Wiggins]

Now delay Downtown Disney's opening. It's pointless for those businesses to open without the parks. A week on their own was doable. A month or more? Disastrous. Most of the business owners there are probably already telling Disney they want a delay.

And it's hard to see Disney disagreeing with them. The optics of a pricey mall with a pitifully small number of customers will be bad publicity for DL and DCA, as well as for DD.

[Sun Bonnet]

I miss Disneyland, but I'm hoping the parks stay closed until it is truly safe.We would have all been better off had we done a hard lockdown like Europe did. Now the pain is extended.

[WaltDisney'sAlec]

That's good news for DLR. Now we'll have to see what they decide for WDW, in the light of a state government that has far more lax public health standards and a higher spike in COVID than does California. Will WDW do the right thing for the health of its employees and guests even if they have a green light from "government officials?"

Call me crazy, but I don't expect Chapek to make the right decision in this instance, even if D'Amaro recommends it.

Interesting. I wonder if the other SoCal parks will see similar date pushbacks or if this will be another case of Disney being lonely at the top. If I'm not mistaken, the other parks are still targeting a July 1st re-opening?

Edit: I guess the other SoCal parks would HAVE to be pushed back if the state isn't giving specifics needed for re-opening until after the 4th?

While I personally still feel incredibly uncomfortable with going out to theme parks, I could understand the case for re-opening them if the downward trend in cases/deaths stayed the same. With the increases we're seeing, I don't even want to consider the potential explosion.

As a side note, Dustysage seems to have foreshadowed Disney's decision with his post in the comments section of this morning's Disney News Update, "Growing Reopening Concerns and Uncertainty."

"At the time Disney made their reopening plans, they had public sentiment behind them. Cases were dropping, people were growing tired of being at home. But since then, the US response to the Coronavirus has fallen apart. States are rushing to reopen everything they can. People are throwing caution to the wind and pretending this is all over. And that has caused a boomerang of infections. Florida and California in particular are seeing huge spikes. The death rate in the US remains a massive 11% (of all cases with an outcome). The public is just now starting to catch up to the fact that this is all very real. And that is likely to be causing grave concerns at Disney. I do think it's possible we'll see Disney pause their plans pending further direction from the CDC, their state health officers, and their own internal legal and health consultants. It would be quite the legal (and moral) liability to put guests and cast in harms way intentionally. I didn't feel that way two weeks ago either. I thought that with cases going down and Disney's ability to manage guests and sanitation, they'd safely be able to reopen. But it's clear that this virus has the upper hand right now and even Disney isn't going to be able to overcome the rising tide all around them."

Great quote from Dusty Sage.

Now delay Downtown Disney's opening. It's pointless for those businesses to open without the parks. A week on their own was doable. A month or more? Disastrous. Most of the business owners there are probably already telling Disney they want a delay.

This is a really good point. I'm curious who actually has control of the property access here: Disneyland or the tenants? If Earl of Sandwich wants to be open for carryout/delivery, maybe they should be allowed like any other restaurant. But I can't imagine Splitsville or the Lego store want to resume making payments.

On the flipside, is there any world where Disney goes rogue and puts on a fireworks show from the usual spot while allowing people to socially distance in the Esplanade? Now that would be interesting...

[PhotoMatt]

That is disingenuous, at best. A death rate cannot be determined without knowing how many people have been infected. The real death rate is very low. Healthy adults below the age of 70 are not at all likely to die from this virus.

Dusty's claim is, "The death rate in the US remains a massive 11% (of all cases with an outcome)."

Your claim is that "it's disingenuous, at best."

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The mortality rate among completed cases is determined as follows: deaths/(deaths + recovered). The numbers are 124,281/(124,281 + 1,040,605). That equals .1066. That's 11 percent when rounded up.

Dusty's statement is correct.

Dusty clearly said, "of all cases with an outcome". To be fair, it would have been better to say, "of all known cases with an outcome", but his statement is still correct. Of all known cases with an outcome, the mortality rate is 10.66 percent. It is reasonable to round up to 11 for the purposes of creating an easy to read statement.

You then claim, "A death rate cannot be determined without knowing how many people have been infected."

This is incorrect. What you mean to say is that a 100 percent accurate death rate can not be determined without knowing the total number of people infected and the number of people who recovered vs those who did not. No disease in history has ever had a 100 percent accurate mortality rate. Ever. Scientists can only estimate based on what they know.

You then claim that the "death rate is really low." Please define "low", then provide a link to a credible source that supports your claim.

Finally, you make the claim, "Healthy adults below the age of 70 are not at all likely to die from this virus." What is this based on?

I am going to post this now, but I will have more to add in response to your last statement.

ETA: Your claim, "Healthy adults below the age of 70 are not at all likely to die from this virus" is vague, but the idea it represents appears to be factual.

"For 7% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.5 additional conditions or causes per death." Source - https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...m#ExcessDeaths

I think it would be better to say that the risk of dying from COVID-19 is greatly reduced if a person is below 65 and has no comorbidities.

So, we agree on that part, but we often get lost in the mortality rate. The issue has never been how many people are going to die, as horrible as that sounds. The issue has always been exceeding hospital capacity. When that happens the overall mortality rate will increase because access to the ER will be restricted for non COVID-19 patients. As an example, if a hospital is filled with COVID-19 patients and they need a bed for a person hit by a car, what happens when that bed is not available or there are no doctors available to provide treatment?

[Eagleman]

As a side note, Dustysage seems to have foreshadowed Disney's decision with his post in the comments section of this morning's Disney News Update, "Growing Reopening Concerns and Uncertainty."

"At the time Disney made their reopening plans, they had public sentiment behind them. Cases were dropping, people were growing tired of being at home. But since then, the US response to the Coronavirus has fallen apart. States are rushing to reopen everything they can. People are throwing caution to the wind and pretending this is all over. And that has caused a boomerang of infections. Florida and California in particular are seeing huge spikes. The death rate in the US remains a massive 11% (of all cases with an outcome). The public is just now starting to catch up to the fact that this is all very real. And that is likely to be causing grave concerns at Disney. I do think it's possible we'll see Disney pause their plans pending further direction from the CDC, their state health officers, and their own internal legal and health consultants. It would be quite the legal (and moral) liability to put guests and cast in harms way intentionally. I didn't feel that way two weeks ago either. I thought that with cases going down and Disney's ability to manage guests and sanitation, they'd safely be able to reopen. But it's clear that this virus has the upper hand right now and even Disney isn't going to be able to overcome the rising tide all around them."

It's good to see the side note/ comment from Dustysage
and I AGREE !

[Mr Wiggins]

On the flipside, is there any world where Disney goes rogue and puts on a fireworks show from the usual spot while allowing people to socially distance in the Esplanade? Now that would be interesting...

That's indeed an interesting thought. The downside risk for Disney is that they would have to deploy CMs to control the crowds and enforce safety rules. Considering the militancy of Orange County's anti-maskers, we could see photos and videos of CMs being unable to control the guests' mask wearing and social distancing. It would be bad for Disney's public image, and even worse if the photos were against a background of magical Disney fireworks. Such photos would be front page news around the world -- a poster for America's failure to contain the pandemic.

[Captain Andy]

The real death rate is very low. Healthy adults below the age of 70 are not at all likely to die from this virus.

Please provide a credible source to this claim because based on what I’m reading and personally experiencing, that is a false claim.

[PhotoMatt]

The real death rate is very low.

Would you agree that New Zealand handled the virus as well as any country could?

If so, please see this - https://www.worldometers.info/corona...y/new-zealand/

The mortality rate among known, completed cases is 1.46 percent. Is that low? I'm not asking to argue, I'm only asking to find out what you consider to be "low".

Consider South Korea - https://www.worldometers.info/corona...y/south-korea/

They are often considered an example of a country that did practically everything right.

Their mortality rate among all known, completed cases is 2.5 percent. Is that low?