[Other] Personal Speculation: Reopening

[oceanbreeze77]

Oh look! Another reopening forum

anyways, I am at that point where I truly believe disney will not open until the new year. I thought this would be, but not seriously, and now its serious. With the spikes, and seeing how WDW is failing spectacularly (they have AWFUL attendance numbers---even for what they expected), I dont think disney would reopen this year.

What do you all think? Honest opinions. NO FIGHTING.

[hbdad]

I think you’re right. It’s hard to see the state allowing Disneyland to reopen but not allow kids at school.

[oceanbreeze77]

I think you’re right. It’s hard to see the state allowing Disneyland to reopen but not allow kids at school.

that too...

[Mr Wiggins]

Oh look! Another reopening forum

anyways, I am at that point where I truly believe disney will not open until the new year. I thought this would be, but not seriously, and now its serious. With the spikes, and seeing how WDW is failing spectacularly (they have AWFUL attendance numbers---even for what they expected), I dont think disney would reopen this year.

What do you all think? Honest opinions. NO FIGHTING.

I think WDW will be closed by Halloween. WDW and DLR might reopen in late Spring of 2021 -- if the U.S. starts doing what every other nation that controlled their COVID numbers has done, namely, an aggressive, national-wide program of mass testing and contact tracing. But we're not on track to do that: The U.S. shows no signs of changing the current national insanity of politicizing the pandemic, which has pushed us back to where we were in March.

[JerrodDRagon]

While the parks with rides wont be open this year....if they wanted to they could open the parks for other events.

[Rammikin]

I wonder what the revenue numbers look like at WDW. They're losing money by opening in Florida, I'm sure. But are they losing more or less money than if they had remained closed?

[Mr Wiggins]

I wonder what the revenue numbers look like at WDW. They're losing money by opening in Florida, I'm sure. But are they losing more or less money than if they had remained closed?

From the photos and description in MiceChat's WDW Update of the scant crowds, it's difficult to imagine they're anywhere near the break-even point.

[oceanbreeze77]

I wonder what the revenue numbers look like at WDW. They're losing money by opening in Florida, I'm sure. But are they losing more or less money than if they had remained closed?

I think more, because they had to order products, pay cms, install safety measures, and no one is showing up.

[YellowTugStrap]

There is no way DLR is gonna open anytime soon. Every time I check my news feed I see a story about California's numbers and how many people in the state refuse to social distance. I also think WDW is gonna close, hopefully soon, because it's been a massive loss. I wish there was a way where they could all close, but resume their construction projects, so we can come back to a new Snow White/ Marvel Land!

[Starcade]

I agree I have been saying this from the jump from what I am hearing from my Doctor and Nurse friends and seeing all the other things like schools and sports programs possibly hoping for a partial re-openings but not until like October for something like DL to open things would have to be pretty stable which I don't see happening until Feb 2021 at the soonest. WDW I think has been a mistake and the first report of a cluster of people testing positive who were there will shut things down and I see that being very likely unfortunately. It usually take 2-3 weeks before we see the true damage done by people congregating. Sadly had we had a national shutdown and mask mandate in place back in March when we knew it was needed we would be in the early stage of re-opening everything with less than half of the deaths we have seen.

[tarheelalum]

Mid or late November things will start opening up again.

[JerrodDRagon]

I think more, because they had to order products, pay cms, install safety measures, and no one is showing up.

On Weekends both Disney and Universal Parls are good on crowds.....it's only weekdays they are lacking. Also Disneyland is a different beast because of APs, I'm sure if they opened here we'd see DCA and Disneyland beat WDW on attendance because of the locals

[jsuperk]

Very late august or after labor day.

[Spongeocto4]

I think things might get bad, company wise, if DL & DCA don't reopen by Fall. Namely October, when the new fiscal year and budget begins.

I think Disney might drop their normal nice act and put pressure on California's government, for permission to reopen. They already threw the CA government under the bus, by blaming them for rescinding the park reopenings.

And add to everything, the current floating company rumor on the internet...is not pretty. An alleged insider posted that certain executives are considering the idea of selling off the ownership of Hong Kong and Shanghai Disneyland. However, as the rumor claims, Bob Iger is flatout 'against' the idea, with him threatening to resign over the notion. And take that with a grain of salt...

Bottom line, I think they will reopen sooner than later. And most likely, I think whatever the inevitable reopening date is, it will receive the same flak as WDW'S did.

[RforFilm]

At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney ends up selling their ownership of the Shanghai and Hong Kong parks. Even though a lot of it is going to be motivated by large financial losses, there’s a bigger cause for concern. Though I cannot reveal who, an insider I know had talked about how bad the financial numbers are for the entire entertainment industry.

Disney (and a lot of other American companies) are probably going to exit China over a potential Cold War as tensions in trading and COVID have put them on their own island. It’ll probably happen with two scenarios;

1. Disney will sell off their ownership of the parks, but maintain a licensing deal similar to how they operate Tokyo Disneyland.

2. China will simply force American companies out and just take the land for themselves.

[Rammikin]

From the photos and description in MiceChat's WDW Update of the scant crowds, it's difficult to imagine they're anywhere near the break-even point.

Sure, they are obviously losing money by opening with all the restrictions that are currently necessary. But I'm wondering if they would lose less money if they close. If so, there is no point to reopening in California.

[Mr Wiggins]

Sure, they are obviously losing money by opening with all the restrictions that are currently necessary. But I'm wondering if they would lose less money if they close. If so, there is no point to reopening in California.

I agree. There's no way to know for sure, but I'd be very surprised if they weren't losing money in Florida. And every day that goes by with international travel tanking, the economy in the toilet, COVID deaths climbing toward 250,000 and Florida's governor's head firmly inserted where the sun don't shine, it stands to reason that fewer folks will feel like "Hey! Let's go to Disney!"

[Blurr]

I had read from an "insider" on another site that Disney is in fact losing money keeping the WDW parks open. According to this person and supposedly, the reason for operating at a loss for the time being is apparently to try and instill confidence in future bookings. In other words, they are claiming Disney is open at a loss right now but hopes that in doing so and being able to maintain it, visitors will see that the parks have been open, are remaining open and hopefully, without any connection to massive COVID outbreaks so they'll book rooms and trips. A lose money now to make money later mindset. Sort of a.. "Hey, see? Things are fine!" kind of deal.

Take that statement with a grain of salt. I have nothing to back up this supposed insider or their statements other than what they have said themselves.

[oceanbreeze77]

I had read from an "insider" on another site that Disney is in fact losing money keeping the WDW parks open. According to this person and supposedly, the reason for operating at a loss for the time being is apparently to try and instill confidence in future bookings. In other words, they are claiming Disney is open at a loss right now but hopes that in doing so and being able to maintain it, visitors will see that the parks have been open, are remaining open and hopefully, without any connection to massive COVID outbreaks so they'll book rooms and trips. A lose money now to make money later mindset. Sort of a.. "Hey, see? Things are fine!" kind of deal.

Take that statement with a grain of salt. I have nothing to back up this supposed insider or their statements other than what they have said themselves.

I read it too....I believe it, but that strategy won't fly in CA. You can get away with a whole lot more in FL.

[oceanbreeze77]

We are heading towards unprecedented times.