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  • Eagleman
    replied
    Originally posted by Captain Quantum View Post

    I agree. Until the park can operate at 100% capacity, there is no room in the attendance numbers for any type of discount access (all forms of AP's). The park will have no problem to operate at 50% capacity with daily paid attendance. It will be years before an AP program as we know it kicks in again. Social distancing in the new norm everywhere, we need to accept it. That said it will take a year just to get to the Orange Tier that our legislators are trying to get passed in Sacramento. That's just to open the park, never mind about AP's.
    Your right.......ALSO
    Disney will save money -not running-AP's program ,as well the monthly payment plan.
    on operation........and mean less Cast Member's in that part of the operation /program
    This is why....so many program at Walt Disney World, is being taken away !
    Operation Costand in return Disney Save Money
    IMO
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Also IMO........The theme Park Bill will Pass legislation
    and sure the Governor will sign it
    Last edited by Eagleman; 02-06-2021, 07:57 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Captain Quantum
    replied
    Originally posted by Eagleman View Post

    I think that were Disney is going...... is Admission - regular multi-day passes only ,maybe park hopper.......IMO
    I agree. Until the park can operate at 100% capacity, there is no room in the attendance numbers for any type of discount access (all forms of AP's). The park will have no problem to operate at 50% capacity with daily paid attendance. It will be years before an AP program as we know it kicks in again. Social distancing in the new norm everywhere, we need to accept it. That said it will take a year just to get to the Orange Tier that our legislators are trying to get passed in Sacramento. That's just to open the park at 25%, never mind about AP's.
    Last edited by Captain Quantum; 02-08-2021, 08:50 AM.

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  • Eagleman
    replied
    Originally posted by greenalfonzo View Post

    AP is just a kind of discount pass. They should just stick with their regular multi-day passes. Maybe extend their expiration dates a bit. They'll make more money per visit, and can always bring back longer term passes down the road if they're not getting large enough crowds.
    I think that were Disney is going...... is Admission - regular multi-day passes only ,maybe park hopper.......IMO

    Leave a comment:


  • greenalfonzo
    replied
    Originally posted by Eagleman View Post
    Just My Opinion,
    I think Disney ,is going do without the AP's program for few year....
    Maybe try a new programs........
    We see -Time will tell.......
    AP is just a kind of discount pass. They should just stick with their regular multi-day passes. Maybe extend their expiration dates a bit. They'll make more money per visit, and can always bring back longer term passes down the road if they're not getting large enough crowds.

    Leave a comment:


  • Eagleman
    replied
    Just My Opinion,
    I think Disney ,is going do without the AP's program for few year....
    Maybe try a new programs........
    We see -Time will tell.......

    Leave a comment:


  • JerrodDRagon
    replied
    Originally posted by SuperHappyCM View Post

    I don’t think Disney will need passholders for a couple of years. Tokyo Disney has been open and they got rid of their AP program.
    Makes me even more excited to visit then.

    Leave a comment:


  • Eagleman
    replied
    IMO
    At this point ,I think Disney rather have the Higher Admission Price......pass
    Specially if only open to a 25% park capacity

    There are many ,that would pay the the price !

    Leave a comment:


  • kjorgensen43
    replied
    I've never been an AP holder. I lived just outside the boundary and was just a little too far when I wanted to become one. I became a fan of the park during the last recession. The parks were empty and DL was giving away tickets on my birthday and once for volunteering. Nice hotel rooms at the convention center for under $100 a night!

    About that time I remember seeing posters advertising the AP passes for monthly payments of $5. As the recession faded, it was easy to see that AP became more and more popular and the Parks began to fill more and more and price increases made no difference. It was a cycle, as a shareholder, that saw the park's division easily maintain an 8% revenue growth YoY.

    The parks did a good job getting our family to visit. But my enjoyment level dropped when attendance surged to capacity level. I think the crowd levels could have convinced me to skip our annual sojourn a couple of years ago for something else, but then there was Star Wars. (And I still haven't gotten to ride the Resistance yet!!!)

    I am looking forward to 25% park capacity and will happily pay a little more for it, and perhaps to wait in a reservation to do it. But not a $300 ticket. That's too much for me. But I would be willing to pay a little more and would be willing to shorten the time frame I am in the Park so they could fill the park twice a day. (Maybe an overnight shift?)

    Remember what baseball did in response to the superstar salaries with doubleheaders? As a kid, it was a treat to go to a double-header because it was free!! Now they kick you out between games. (Boo!!) A shortened day, with quick access to rides and uncrowded restaurants? Hmm... sounds exciting to me both short-term and long-term.

    Leave a comment:


  • SuperHappyCM
    replied
    Originally posted by JerrodDRagon View Post

    Thats if they lose money....I think at least for the first year after Covid they will get a huge influx of people wanting to go to the parks at any price and buy things just because. Disney will then be able to see how it will work without Aps and price from there.
    I don’t think Disney will need passholders for a couple of years. Tokyo Disney has been open and they got rid of their AP program.

    Leave a comment:


  • Sun Bonnet
    replied
    Originally posted by greenalfonzo View Post
    Well, there's not just *one* type of AP.

    Until recently, I knew only two families with APs.

    The ones with kids lived in a neighboring state and would come to DLR twice a year for a week. They'd stay on the property, and do the full immersion experience - character meals, princess makeovers, etc. They said the APs were cheaper than tickets.

    The others are a couple who live 20 minutes from the park. They said they would go "almost every day" after work, and would save money by "eating beforehand, or taking peanut butter sandwiches."
    On behalf of the childless couple from a blue state, we would never do something as disgusting as eat peanut butter sandwiches. It's the blood of virgins or nothing!

    Leave a comment:


  • mickdaddy
    replied
    Originally posted by JayRomy View Post

    I'm a bit off topic in asking this here, I know, but...

    I never thought that it would come down to less ride vehicles when DL reopens. Why would this be? To control the new lower crowds (as in keeping various areas balanced)? To save on wages? Maintenance costs?

    Until I read your comment, I assumed max ride vehicles meant a few more places in the park for ppl to be. Even if it's a smallish number. That adds a tiny fraction to the overall 20-25% capacity. Or is capacity only calculated by walkable square feet?

    Now I'm very curious and slightly confused.

    ETA: clarification
    I don't think there will be a physical lower number of ride vehicles however based on the Disney World model they will likely not board every ride vehicle or row in the vehicle as a measure of social distancing. so ride capacity will be smaller. I know with the 6 foot spacing the lines in Disneyworld have been very long but still move fast even with the reduced capacity.

    Leave a comment:


  • JayRomy
    replied
    Originally posted by greenalfonzo View Post
    I'm actually really excited by the idea that they may open for an extended period with a 33 - 50% attendance cap to lower the crowds, even though this inevitably will mean proportionally fewer ride vehicles will be in service etc.
    I'm a bit off topic in asking this here, I know, but...

    I never thought that it would come down to less ride vehicles when DL reopens. Why would this be? To control the new lower crowds (as in keeping various areas balanced)? To save on wages? Maintenance costs?

    Until I read your comment, I assumed max ride vehicles meant a few more places in the park for ppl to be. Even if it's a smallish number. That adds a tiny fraction to the overall 20-25% capacity. Or is capacity only calculated by walkable square feet?

    Now I'm very curious and slightly confused.

    ETA: clarification

    Leave a comment:


  • greenalfonzo
    replied
    Well, there's not just *one* type of AP.

    Until recently, I knew only two families with APs.

    The ones with kids lived in a neighboring state and would come to DLR twice a year for a week. They'd stay on the property, and do the full immersion experience - character meals, princess makeovers, etc. They said the APs were cheaper than tickets.

    The others are a couple who live 20 minutes from the park. They said they would go "almost every day" after work, and would save money by "eating beforehand, or taking peanut butter sandwiches."

    I just hope whatever they do, they address the overcrowding issue. Their current (past) cap is just too high for a positive experience. I'm actually really excited by the idea that they may open for an extended period with a 33 - 50% attendance cap to lower the crowds, even though this inevitably will mean proportionally fewer ride vehicles will be in service etc.

    Leave a comment:


  • Eagleman
    replied
    Originally posted by linkeq2001 View Post

    If Disney thinks there are more dollars to be made then the APs will be changed, if they feel that there is not more money to be made then they will keep the AP program.
    The point is Disney will go were the money $* $ $ $ * $ is......with or with out AP's program....
    Only time will tell ,if there a AP's program in the future !
    .....I have to agree......
    IMO
    Last edited by Eagleman; 02-03-2021, 07:42 PM.

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  • linkeq2001
    replied
    Originally posted by jish5555 View Post

    This, because yes, aps aren't going to go out and overly splurge since they visit a lot more often, but most vacation goers are only a one time thing per year, where Disney can't really even rely on them as there's a 50/50 they'll only buy essentials and only buy a few nick nacks here and there, only really selling the bigger items to a smaller percentage. With aps, that's a 70-80% guarantee on food sales per visit, and a higher guarantee on merch sales as a large chunk of aps may go to the parks during the holiday season where they're not even there to ride rides or see shows, but instead they're at the parks to buy gifts or buy those seasonal products they can't normally get, where as the once a year guest may not even care much for that specialty merch as to them, they have no idea what is and isn't seasonal. As for overcrowding, that's something we may not like, but let's face it, Disney WANTS the parks overly crowded, because that means more money.
    There are lots of pretty broad assumptions here. I mean if we are basing it on personal experiences I can all but guarantee that when we go on our somewhat bi annual visits we are definitely spending more money than you are suggesting. I'd also argue that most tourists are not getting "only essentials" especially when it comes to food and items, and there's a reason that the holiday time of year is the busiest....with all the blackouts that means it's likely filled with tourists. In the end Disney is going to do what makes them the most money. The shedding of the lower cost passports over the last few years tells us that those were not making money, we will see what the program comes back as.

    Losing the AP program will never "hurt the parks" as you suggest because Disney would not get rid of it if it hurt their bottom line, they would get rid of it in its current form if they felt they would make more money without the program. There's a personal value that's being incorrectly conflated with Disney's value here. The APs themselves bring NOTHING of value to the parks, they bring dollars; if Disney thinks there are more dollars to be made then the APs will be changed, if they feel that there is not more money to be made then they will keep the AP program.

    Leave a comment:


  • jish5555
    replied
    Originally posted by Mr. Blue View Post

    That may be true, but if you are talking about ANNUAL revenue for the business, you have to look at cumulative total spend over the course of a full year by each unique visitor to the park. APs may spend less on a single visit, but the multiple visits likely do average out to a much higher "Per Customer, Per Year" spend rate than most non-AP visitors. A lot of these "Per Visit" revenue discussions therefore miss the mark, in my opinion. If you look at how much each individual customer spends during a calendar year, I suspect APs compare quite favorably against casual visitors. This, of course, doesn't address the overcrowding issues, but it seems like a thoughtfully-implemented reservation system is a reasonable way to manage that going forward.
    This, because yes, aps aren't going to go out and overly splurge since they visit a lot more often, but most vacation goers are only a one time thing per year, where Disney can't really even rely on them as there's a 50/50 they'll only buy essentials and only buy a few nick nacks here and there, only really selling the bigger items to a smaller percentage. With aps, that's a 70-80% guarantee on food sales per visit, and a higher guarantee on merch sales as a large chunk of aps may go to the parks during the holiday season where they're not even there to ride rides or see shows, but instead they're at the parks to buy gifts or buy those seasonal products they can't normally get, where as the once a year guest may not even care much for that specialty merch as to them, they have no idea what is and isn't seasonal. As for overcrowding, that's something we may not like, but let's face it, Disney WANTS the parks overly crowded, because that means more money.

    Leave a comment:


  • jish5555
    replied
    All I know is that in the end, without aps, it'll hurt far more guests than help, as Disney will need to replenish the loss of revenue.

    Leave a comment:


  • SuperHappyCM
    replied
    Originally posted by ravencroft View Post
    This is just my opinion. If it takes eliminating the AP and charging $300 per day ticket to eliminate overcrowding, then I support that. The oversubscription of the California resort is my #1 criticism of the Disney Resort and appears to be unsolvable otherwise. The California Resort is sort of a victim of the success of Southern California attracting so many people from around the world to call this place home. There are 38 million people in California. 19 Million in Northern CA and 19 Million in Southern California.
    Totally agree

    Leave a comment:


  • Mr. Blue
    replied
    Originally posted by linkeq2001 View Post

    A lot of the "APs spend so much" anecdotes are often quoted by super fans, if you are on this board you are a super fan. I can pretty much guarantee you that the vast majority of lower tier APs are not dropping hundreds of dollars per visit at the park.
    That may be true, but if you are talking about ANNUAL revenue for the business, you have to look at cumulative total spend over the course of a full year by each unique visitor to the park. APs may spend less on a single visit, but the multiple visits likely do average out to a much higher "Per Customer, Per Year" spend rate than most non-AP visitors. A lot of these "Per Visit" revenue discussions therefore miss the mark, in my opinion. If you look at how much each individual customer spends during a calendar year, I suspect APs compare quite favorably against casual visitors. This, of course, doesn't address the overcrowding issues, but it seems like a thoughtfully-implemented reservation system is a reasonable way to manage that going forward.

    Leave a comment:


  • linkeq2001
    replied
    Originally posted by jish5555 View Post

    that's not a win win if Disney loses money and in turn needs to raise prices so as to counter the revenue loss, especially when previous aps will be less likely to go, dropping their attendance by 80% which in turn means a loss of $150-$200 mill yearly on just ticket prices alone since without aps, means they go from going on a regular basis to going once to twice a year. The main reason for this is that now, without aps, many people who had an annual pass can't just go for a few hours a trip since now they need to feel like they're getting their money's worth, so now will only go when they feel they can do a full day. This means Disney went from making over $1000 to now making $150-$400 off them, which isn't good for business. Then let's add on all the extra food and merch not getting sold because past ap holders aren't showing up much and there's no actual increase in park attendance (since people who only go once a year aren't going to suddenly increase due to lack of aps, which means Disney's not making more money off them).
    A lot of the "APs spend so much" anecdotes are often quoted by super fans, if you are on this board you are a super fan. I can pretty much guarantee you that the vast majority of lower tier APs are not dropping hundreds of dollars per visit at the park.

    Leave a comment:

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