Did Disney overestimate their draw, again?

[tarheelalum]

As I look on their website I see a lot of availability at Disneyland in June. Do you think Disney thought everyone in California would pay whatever and go regardless of their limited offerings the same way they assumed when Galaxy's Edge opened up half finished? Has Disney's arrogance got the best of them again? If so how do you think they will fix this? Or will they do nothing and let the park sit empty all year Monday through Thursday.

[DLR92]

I think DL booking are good. Honestly I think the operation hours sucks. It deter me to visit until June or after.

[JerrodDRagon]

It will be fine but many people can't might not want to travel yet and for locals, I can wait for EVERYTHING to be normal before heading back in

Once WOC comes back and you no longer need masks sure it will be back to normal

[tarheelalum]

[QUOTE=JerrodDRagon;n8635898Once WOC comes back and you no longer need masks sure it will be back to normal[/QUOTE]

You don't think the job losses and business closures will have an impact?

[Co Foo]

This is probably just my personal bias, but I don't believe that many more people would be coming out if Disney were still going to have fireworks and parades.

My guess is that there are a lot of former APs who aren't going to come back until they come out with whatever replaces that program. It's hard to go from getting nearly unlimited access for a few hundred dollars to now paying for individual admissions.

[tarheelalum]

This is probably just my personal bias, but I don't believe that many more people would be coming out if Disney were still going to have fireworks and parades.

My guess is that there are a lot of former APs who aren't going to come back until they come out with whatever replaces that program. It's hard to go from getting nearly unlimited access for a few hundred dollars to now paying for individual admissions.

I think you are correct. People can't or won't pay the day ticket prices due to the absurd levels they have reached. They have gotten use to the AP value and will not pay the rip off prices Disney charges.

Disney has got itself into quite the pickle. They desperately need the steady money the AP program brings in now more than ever, yet they seem to want to distance themselves from the AP program. But anything they do to reduce the AP program will alienate all those people who bring the constant cashflow they need now more than ever. And without the AP program they will have to drastically cut/change the way they have been doing business the last decade and bring in a lot less money and end Chapeks career real quick.

[Blurr]

I sorta hope they did. I'd love to buy a ticket and realize the place isn't packed to the brim and feels as easy-going as it did when I was younger.

Let's see if the folks willing to buy the one day tickets are really willing to spend more money overall once inside/during their visit. If they are, there may be variables we're not seeing. Lots of availability looks bad for sure but maybe Disney is banking on those fewer people who do go, to spend more. Gonna be real interesting.

[BasilOregano]

Maybe, but there are a lot of explanations here and I don't think that's the most likely one. People might be waiting to finish their vaccine courses first, or expecting it to be prohibitively crowded, or cautious about being the 'guinea pigs' for the new way the park is operating, or haven't gotten the news that is reopening quite yet, or have already planned trip elsewhere, or don't feel like figuring out the reservation system, etc.

[Mr Wiggins]

As I look on their website I see a lot of availability at Disneyland in June. Do you think Disney thought everyone in California would pay whatever and go regardless of their limited offerings the same way they assumed when Galaxy's Edge opened up half finished? Has Disney's arrogance got the best of them again? If so how do you think they will fix this? Or will they do nothing and let the park sit empty all year Monday through Thursday.

I think they're going to take the most risk-free strategy (risk in this case being defined as not getting gold stars from Wall Street) by playing both ends against the middle -- assuring the Street that they're protecting profits by raising prices and slashing operating costs; taking credit if it works and pointing the finger of blame at the State's reopening rules if it backfires.

I think you are correct. People can't or won't pay the day ticket prices due to the absurd levels they have reached. They have gotten use to the AP value and will not pay the rip off prices Disney charges.

Disney has got itself into quite the pickle. They desperately need the steady money the AP program brings in now more than ever, yet they seem to want to distance themselves from the AP program. But anything they do to reduce the AP program will alienate all those people who bring the constant cashflow they need now more than ever. And without the AP program they will have to drastically cut/change the way they have been doing business the last decade and bring in a lot less money and end Chapeks career real quick.

ka-Bingo. It's especially interesting now to consider Bob1's quick tossing of the CEO ball to Bob2 back when the heat started to come on.

[vroomichael]

I think there's a bit of waiting on both sides. Guests are trying to see if the prices are worth it after the first reports come in, Disney's still trying to figure out how to manage the park with the ever-changing guidelines.

When WDW first opened, there were hardly any folks there, with wait times overall pretty low. And as soon as those reports came out and people started getting more comfortable, now wait times are "normal."

We also don't know what capacity Disneyland themselves are settings, or how close it is to the government's guidelines.

[TacAlert]

Price didn't bother me. But I want a full day (at least 15 hours) and no masks. I can wait. Been going to DL for over 50 years. Few more months won't hurt me.

[mickeyfan42]

There are a lot of factors at play that we need to take into account:

1) So far, Disneyland isn't allowing out of state guests to visit, and those are the guests most used to paying for 1-5 day tickets.
2) There are no Annual Passes right now and the people who are former AP holders are NOT used to these prices per visit (I am but I'm in Seattle).
3) Disneyland is going to make more at the gate for the guests that do come than they would if they were AP tickets right now.
4) A lot of guests that might live in California probably want to wait to visit DCA until after Avengers Campus opens since they can't just go for the evenings like they normally might on a weekly basis.
5) I think things are different now than they would have been if the park had opened in September-October, because as of now everyone 16+ is eligible to get their vaccine shots (eligible doesn't mean already have it scheduled). I know that if I lived in SoCal and was eligible to go, I'd still be waiting until after I am fully vaccinated (2 weeks after your final dose). While I'm lucky and will be getting my second dose in a week, which means I'll be fully vaccinated mid may, most of the target audience won't be fully vaccinated until late may at the earliest, possibly into June and July. You will also still have guests that will want to wait even longer after being fully vaccinated, shoot, I won't be comfortable going to see Cruella in a theater even though I'll be fully vaccinated.
6) Guests that may be comfortable going in general both from a financial and health perspective, might still be holding off due to the lack of major entertainment offerings and character meet and greets for the time being (although based on the recent news out of WDW, that might come back sooner than later).

anecdotally, one of my cousins lives in SoCal and had an AP, and she told me she isn't going back until 1) the park is back to "normal", 2) she and her family (that are old enough) are fully vaccinated, 3) some kind of AP program has been brought back.

[Eagleman]

ka-Bingo. It's especially interesting now to consider Bob1's quick tossing of the CEO ball to Bob2 back when the heat started to come on.

Bob sure did -take his money and pass buck on to Bob2
But don't forget his hand ,is still in the pie.........he is still on board at Disney!

[Brian PieGuy]

This is probably just my personal bias, but I don't believe that many more people would be coming out if Disney were still going to have fireworks and parades.

My guess is that there are a lot of former APs who aren't going to come back until they come out with whatever replaces that program. It's hard to go from getting nearly unlimited access for a few hundred dollars to now paying for individual admissions.

I think the lack of annual passes is the biggest factor, but the sheer number of attractions not in operation was also a factor for me not going. I can't imagine paying full price for Disneyland and not getting to experience Fantasmic, Great Moments with Mr. Lincoln, Storybook Canals, the canoes, et cetera, especially when some of them may be operating later this year.

[merlinjones]

Spontaneity is key for me (not for everyone, clearly). I find reservations a deterrent - for almost anything. I used to go to museums and exhibits when you could just drop in, but not so much in the years since reservations are required. Same for reserve seats movies. For theatre/concerts I go to the rush line. Never know what the weather will be or what mood you'll be in way in advance - or if there's a better option in the meantime.

[mickeyfan42]

Spontaneity is key for me (not for everyone, clearly). I find reservations a deterrent - for almost anything. I used to go to museums and exhibits when you could just drop in, but not so much in the years since reservations are required. Same for reserve seats movies. For theatre/concerts I go to the rush line. Never know what the weather will be or what mood you'll be in way in advance - or if there's a better option in the meantime.

I don't like pre-reserving Fastpasses like at WDW, but as an out of town guest I have no choice but to plan ahead for when I'm gonna go (need to get time off from work, book a hotel, flights, etc) and due to that I'll make some restaurant reservations (usually at least 1 character breakfast, and 1 meal at Blue Bayou). As to movies, you can bet your donkey that I'm gonna reserve my seats ahead o time, I will skip a screening if the only seats left are far to the side, or the front 2 rows or back 2 rows, I always try to get as close to the center as I can.

[Co Foo]

I think the lack of annual passes is the biggest factor, but the sheer number of attractions not in operation was also a factor for me not going. I can't imagine paying full price for Disneyland and not getting to experience Fantasmic, Great Moments with Mr. Lincoln, Storybook Canals, the canoes, et cetera, especially when some of them may be operating later this year.

If I were to rank the reasons I would push a trip back, it would be:

1) Masking all day
2) plexiglass on rides disrupting views
3) closed rides
4) closed restaurants I like
5) closed entertainment (parades, fireworks, etc)

That’s what comes to mind. I’m hoping that some of these get relaxed in a few months.

[Brian PieGuy]

If I were to rank the reasons I would push a trip back, it would be:

1) Masking all day
2) plexiglass on rides disrupting views
3) closed rides
4) closed restaurants I like
5) closed entertainment (parades, fireworks, etc)

That’s what comes to mind. I’m hoping that some of these get relaxed in a few months.

I certainly agree with your number one reason. I didn't think of plexiglass; have they done this at Disney World or is this just a Disneyland thing?

[Eagleman]

My guess is that there are a lot of former APs who aren't going to come back until they come out with whatever replaces that program. It's hard to go from getting nearly unlimited access for a few hundred dollars to now paying for individual admissions.

I Agree.......
and what ever the New program they have to replace.......AP's.........will be long time coming !
But just my Opinion
I think Disney, wants the individual admissions.

[SuperHappyCM]

I sorta hope they did. I'd love to buy a ticket and realize the place isn't packed to the brim and feels as easy-going as it did when I was younger.

Let's see if the folks willing to buy the one day tickets are really willing to spend more money overall once inside/during their visit. If they are, there may be variables we're not seeing. Lots of availability looks bad for sure but maybe Disney is banking on those fewer people who do go, to spend more. Gonna be real interesting.

Disney did emphasize that with the cancellation of the AP program, they hope to created a much better guest experience for every visit anytime of the year. When the parks reopen they'll have a better idea of how to proceed. But packing the parks to overflowing is (fingers crossed) a thing of the past.