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Chapek: Magic Key, is an "enabler key" to get the "right mix of guests"

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    Eagleman
    Lord of the Sky

  • Eagleman
    replied
    Originally posted by Starcade View Post

    Disney+ and Disney media and Disney Parks ( I hate what I am about to say ) are synergistic (yech I just threw up a little ). Each wing compliments and evangelizes the other. If one begins to create a wave of ill will and negative press ( Disney Parks ) than the others suffer and the Brand as a whole begins to falter. Big investors know the future of Disney is shaky they see the tides turning and customer loyalty being eroded and negative article after negative article. They know we are coming out of a pandemic and their will be a surge for entertainment for 6-9 months after the country opened back up. They know this is temporary and crowds will reseed again as they began to before the Holiday surge happened. Many of them are likely going to short Disney stock right now. I see a more significant drop beyond its slow decline coming in February. But I am not an analyst or even an investor so I could totally be wrong.
    I AGREE...........customer loyalty being eroded, But also there Stock
    My money is not on Disney !
    I not sure ,but the good news could be , I think Bob Chapek days is number now !
    IMO

    Leave a comment:

  • bigcatrik
    MiceChatter

  • bigcatrik
    replied
    Originally posted by Starcade View Post
    I see a more significant drop beyond its slow decline coming in February. But I am not an analyst or even an investor so I could totally be wrong.
    The Earnings Report (for fourth quarter and full fiscal year) is November 10th so there should be some action around that time.

    I'm only invested in Disney in the sense that I own at least one index fund that includes Disney stock. And, of course, I'm "invested" in "Disney" in the sense that I find some of Walt's accomplishments astounding (including Disneyland) and are concerned about their stewardship, but that's for a different thread.

    Leave a comment:

  • Starcade
    Old Skateboarder

  • Starcade
    replied
    Originally posted by bigcatrik View Post
    "also gives us a chance to benefit our shareholders"

    With the report I saw a couple days ago calling Disney stock "dead money" after the Goldman Sachs presentation mentioned in the OP it doesn't seem like the investment community is very optimistic...

    Why Disney stock has been dead money for months
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-d...183645314.html

    "With Disney+ subscriber growth slowing and the pandemic continuing to weigh on the crucial theme-park business' recovery, Disney's (DIS) stock has lagged both the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) since mid-March."

    There's no mention of any of the rejiggering going on in the parks (it's mostly about Disney+), which means it could actually be irrelevant to their stock price and their energy would really be best spent elsewhere in the company.
    Disney+ and Disney media and Disney Parks ( I hate what I am about to say ) are synergistic (yech I just threw up a little ). Each wing compliments and evangelizes the other. If one begins to create a wave of ill will and negative press ( Disney Parks ) than the others suffer and the Brand as a whole begins to falter. Big investors know the future of Disney is shaky they see the tides turning and customer loyalty being eroded and negative article after negative article. They know we are coming out of a pandemic and their will be a surge for entertainment for 6-9 months after the country opened back up. They know this is temporary and crowds will reseed again as they began to before the Holiday surge happened. Many of them are likely going to short Disney stock right now. I see a more significant drop beyond its slow decline coming in February. But I am not an analyst or even an investor so I could totally be wrong.
    Starcade
    Old Skateboarder
    Last edited by Starcade; 10-25-2021, 06:32 PM.

    Leave a comment:

  • Eagleman
    Lord of the Sky

  • Eagleman
    replied
    Originally posted by kjorgensen43 View Post

    Before I answer, I better clarify when I sold 80% of my Disney stock--it was at $120 (and not at $180 lol!).

    Now that I have disclosed that I was the furthest thing from an Oracle of the Omaha, you can take the value of my opinion as a grain of salt--worthless!

    I think Disney+'s value to the shareholder remains in its potential subscriber growth forecast. Growth forecasting recently took a hit. Also, we now know AT&T failed in its efforts and is trying to ditch HBO and DirectTV. Thus, my guess is that the answer to your question will be much clearer in the next 18 months.
    I been reading up......NEWS
    I was going tell you ,Growth forecasting recently , took a hit and lots of subscriber
    are not renewing

    Again-How long in future will Disney+ plus, help Disney?
    Time will tell !

    Leave a comment:

  • kjorgensen43
    Cal. Cent. Coast'r

  • kjorgensen43
    replied
    Originally posted by Eagleman View Post

    I believe your right !....
    The question would be.....How long in future will Disney+ plus, help Disney?
    But Disney Parks, have not been a driver of stock value !
    Before I answer, I better clarify when I sold 80% of my Disney stock--it was at $120 (and not at $180 lol!).

    Now that I have disclosed that I was the furthest thing from an Oracle of the Omaha, you can take the value of my opinion as a grain of salt--worthless!

    I think Disney+'s value to the shareholder remains in its potential subscriber growth forecast. Growth forecasting recently took a hit. Also, we now know AT&T failed in its efforts and is trying to ditch HBO and DirectTV. Thus, my guess is that the answer to your question will be much clearer in the next 18 months.

    Leave a comment:

  • merlinjones
    Minion

  • merlinjones
    replied
    Even though I'm a lifelong admirer of Walt Disney's films, I don't/won't subscribe to Disney+ because so little of his film library has been made available on the service. Relatively few of the animated shorts and featurettes, live actions films, and TV series episodes made during Walt's lifetime are offered, curbing its appeal to me. Compare to the early premium service years of the Disney Channel, it's almost criminal how little is offered.

    Leave a comment:

  • Eagleman
    Lord of the Sky

  • Eagleman
    replied
    Originally posted by kjorgensen43 View Post

    Agree. Disney+ plus drove the stock price from $120 to $180 at the beginning of the pandemic. The sheer growth of subscriptions by everyone staying home single handedly drove the price up. I sold out Disney about then because the Parks and Cruises closed. Studios were shut down. Movies were delayed. For years prior, the Parks have shown 6% growth in revenue. It will likely remain the same in the future. Parks have not been a driver of stock value since Disney acquired ESPN and ABC tv.
    I believe your right !....
    The question would be.....How long in future will Disney+ plus, help Disney?
    But Disney Parks, have not been a driver of stock value !

    Leave a comment:

  • kjorgensen43
    Cal. Cent. Coast'r

  • kjorgensen43
    replied
    Originally posted by bigcatrik View Post
    "also gives us a chance to benefit our shareholders"

    There's no mention of any of the rejiggering going on in the parks (it's mostly about Disney+), which means it could actually be irrelevant to their stock price and their energy would really be best spent elsewhere in the company.
    Agree. Disney+ plus drove the stock price from $120 to $180 at the beginning of the pandemic. The sheer growth of subscriptions by everyone staying home single handedly drove the price up. I sold out Disney about then because the Parks and Cruises closed. Studios were shut down. Movies were delayed. For years prior, the Parks have shown 6% growth in revenue. It will likely remain the same in the future. Parks have not been a driver of stock value since Disney acquired ESPN and ABC tv.

    Leave a comment:

  • bigcatrik
    MiceChatter

  • bigcatrik
    replied
    "also gives us a chance to benefit our shareholders"

    With the report I saw a couple days ago calling Disney stock "dead money" after the Goldman Sachs presentation mentioned in the OP it doesn't seem like the investment community is very optimistic...

    Why Disney stock has been dead money for months
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-d...183645314.html

    "With Disney+ subscriber growth slowing and the pandemic continuing to weigh on the crucial theme-park business' recovery, Disney's (DIS) stock has lagged both the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) since mid-March."

    There's no mention of any of the rejiggering going on in the parks (it's mostly about Disney+), which means it could actually be irrelevant to their stock price and their energy would really be best spent elsewhere in the company.

    Leave a comment:

  • micromind
    world class bilge rat

  • micromind
    replied
    Originally posted by merlinjones View Post
    But how do we get "the right mix" of executives to carry on Walt's vision?
    Odd as it may sound, I think one way would be to pay them a LOT less than they are now.

    I may be way off here but I believe executive compensation is sort of like a bell-shaped curve..........on the left end, too low of pay will not attract talented people while on the right end, paying them too much will result in every decision they make being based on how it will affect their bonus.

    There's a happy medium somewhere..............

    Leave a comment:

  • Eagleman
    Lord of the Sky

  • Eagleman
    replied
    Originally posted by Stormy View Post

    IF I were in the market for an MK, I'd be holding off until the holiday madness has passed before I made any decision. In fact I'd probably wait until late Feb/early Mar to give enough time to hopefully get a true picture of how fast the reservations go at first release day and the amount of changes in available days (meaning no ressies then suddenly new ressies appear) for the level of Key I was interested in.

    Right now it's kind of a pig in a poke situation. To mis-quote Forrest Gump's Mama "MKs are like a box of chocolates.
    "You never know what you're gonna get".
    FOR SURE.........
    Any box of chocolates , that comes from Bob Chapek
    I sure , I do not want
    Also sure that box of chocolates ,will be a higher price as well !
    imo

    Leave a comment:

  • Stormy
    Chief Troublemaker

  • Stormy
    replied
    Originally posted by kjorgensen43 View Post

    Good point. I'd love to know how sales of the Magic Key program are going now. You look at how far-off reservations are booked into the future but then hear of others on the forum telling everyone that there is a good chance of getting next-day tickets.
    IF I were in the market for an MK, I'd be holding off until the holiday madness has passed before I made any decision. In fact I'd probably wait until late Feb/early Mar to give enough time to hopefully get a true picture of how fast the reservations go at first release day and the amount of changes in available days (meaning no ressies then suddenly new ressies appear) for the level of Key I was interested in.

    Right now it's kind of a pig in a poke situation. To mis-quote Forrest Gump's Mama "MKs are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get".

    Leave a comment:

  • Starcade
    Old Skateboarder

  • Starcade
    replied
    Originally posted by kjorgensen43 View Post

    Good point. I'd love to know how sales of the Magic Key program are going now. You look at how far-off reservations are booked into the future but then hear of others on the forum telling everyone that there is a good chance of getting next-day tickets.
    One thing that I noticed is for ticketed customers there are still several weekdays that are in the $104 per day range which means they have few reservations for that day already booked from the gen admin bucket. You would think they would then begin to open those up to the "the most loyal Disneyland fans" yet nope they just trying to bleed the stone dry before benefitting those that paid up front. I would be so livid had we pulled the trigger on MK's. I still say if they sunset cheap park and Iger returns he could reinstate something more like the old AP's and resolve all the Media issues Bobby slash and burn has created and they would see record growth in their stock price. The board needs to act while there is still time to right the ship.

    Leave a comment:

  • kjorgensen43
    Cal. Cent. Coast'r

  • kjorgensen43
    replied
    Originally posted by Starcade View Post

    Going to be hard to sell very many Magic Keys this Fall/Winter when historically they would see a bunch sold since anyone purchasing is basically buying a worthless membership until January. I am sure folks are still purchasing them but those people likely do not realize all reservations are booked out for rest of the year.
    Good point. I'd love to know how sales of the Magic Key program are going now. You look at how far-off reservations are booked into the future but then hear of others on the forum telling everyone that there is a good chance of getting next-day tickets.

    Leave a comment:

  • Starcade
    Old Skateboarder

  • Starcade
    replied
    I know hate is a strong word but I hate cheapark so much. He really doesn't know what he is doing as his shallow view of running a company is so self destructive it's nauseating.

    He is absolutely going to bring back the same crowd load as before when he says he isn't he is obviously lying. Now he is fine tuning just how little he can provide CM's and guests while creeping up pricing everywhere he can. He has the power to staff up but he has crippled the ability of HR to get people back with his cuts and refusal to provide a proper package for what is being sold as a entry level job ( it is not ) CM's were once treated properly but that sadly had declined in recent decades but seemed to take a big hit when bobby cutbacks took the helm. Everyone thinking "he is just trying to make guests experiences better by reducing crowds" has fallen for his grift. Spring or Summer 2022 will see the same crowd complaints as before but now there will also be sanitation complaints, lots of shoddy bandaids and duct tape repairs, Food services running out of items or closing early in the day rides seemingly being shut down for fantom maintenance. etc. He will never change our only hope is he is forced to resign once enough board members that actually know what it is like to visit the park start to realize their investment is being destroyed.

    I frankly hate crowds as much as the next person and was even agoraphobic for most of my adult life. However I hated long lines more so than crowded areas and every time I see the wait times on the app I am smh that the wait times are no better than they were winter of 2019 when we last visited.

    Going to be hard to sell very many Magic Keys this Fall/Winter when historically they would see a bunch sold since anyone purchasing is basically buying a worthless membership until January. I am sure folks are still purchasing them but those people likely do not realize all reservations are booked out for rest of the year. IMHO they should halt all MK sales until they have reservations available. My wife who was hesitant to pass on the MK's and isn't as willing to pause our visits to the park as I am is now on board and actually mentioned the other night that she is glad we did not get them and feels we dodged a bullet.
    Starcade
    Old Skateboarder
    Last edited by Starcade; 10-20-2021, 12:35 PM.

    Leave a comment:

  • mickdaddy
    MiceChatter

  • mickdaddy
    replied
    Originally posted by merlinjones View Post
    But how do we get "the right mix" of executives to carry on Walt's vision?
    I wish there was an answer to that, But Walt never cared about money, Money was the thing that stood in his way of achieving his visions. The current Executive regime is all about money, profit share, and bonuses.

    Leave a comment:

  • merlinjones
    Minion

  • merlinjones
    replied
    But how do we get "the right mix" of executives to carry on Walt's vision?

    Leave a comment:

  • mickdaddy
    MiceChatter

  • mickdaddy
    replied
    Originally posted by Stormy View Post
    Forgive me if I'm missing something, but what's wrong with the 'right mix of guests'? I'm assuming he means trying to find the right balance between ticket-guests (TGs) and MKeys on a given day or days. Allocating and re-allocating reservations from one bucket to the next as needed/desired. I'd say staffing would only be affected (beyond what it is now) if what he means is that less overall reservations (reduced capacity) will be offered on certain days to reduced staffing needs.

    IIRC, the AP program was first developed to 'fill in the gaps' on traditionally lower attendance days. It then developed into 24/7/365 level passes which contributed to the overcrowding we're all so familiar with. Sounds to me as if Chapek (with whom I disagree 95% of the time) is just trying to go back to that philosophy IF he means that more weight will be given to TGs over MKeys. To tell the truth, I think that's the way it should be. TGs as a rule are more likely to be those that don't have the option to 'come back tomorrow' so it would make sense to me to favor them. If he's doing it purely for financial reasons (full price vs reduced price admissions), well, isn't that why the AP program was started? To create profit in the 'off-season' by getting bodies into the parks at a reduced price with the hopes that they'll be spending lots of money? If he can fill the parks with mostly full price TGs, why shouldn't he?
    This is my exact thoughts here. If you have ever been an out of town guest and been in the parks on a Friday when the AP crowd got off work you know exactly the change in the park atmosphere and enjoyability with that massive influx. Being a tourist myself I actually am in full favor of this idea. Also Everyone assumes he means bare bones staff at all time but honestly if you really have yield in mind as your main goal it is the proper level of staffing to maximize gains and everyone should realize that means shorter times to get food through mobile order or standby lines, more service in retail locations and easier access to the parks. Do they want to eliminate being over staffed? absolutely every business does this why is the expectation that Disney shouldn't? I am not a fan of Chepak and I feel he will destroy the creative element of Disney if he is allowed to be around very long, His decision to move Imaganeering to Florida is the first step of that creative demise but this is one area I think he is probably on the right track.

    Leave a comment:

  • Stormy
    Chief Troublemaker

  • Stormy
    replied
    Forgive me if I'm missing something, but what's wrong with the 'right mix of guests'? I'm assuming he means trying to find the right balance between ticket-guests (TGs) and MKeys on a given day or days. Allocating and re-allocating reservations from one bucket to the next as needed/desired. I'd say staffing would only be affected (beyond what it is now) if what he means is that less overall reservations (reduced capacity) will be offered on certain days to reduced staffing needs.

    IIRC, the AP program was first developed to 'fill in the gaps' on traditionally lower attendance days. It then developed into 24/7/365 level passes which contributed to the overcrowding we're all so familiar with. Sounds to me as if Chapek (with whom I disagree 95% of the time) is just trying to go back to that philosophy IF he means that more weight will be given to TGs over MKeys. To tell the truth, I think that's the way it should be. TGs as a rule are more likely to be those that don't have the option to 'come back tomorrow' so it would make sense to me to favor them. If he's doing it purely for financial reasons (full price vs reduced price admissions), well, isn't that why the AP program was started? To create profit in the 'off-season' by getting bodies into the parks at a reduced price with the hopes that they'll be spending lots of money? If he can fill the parks with mostly full price TGs, why shouldn't he?

    Leave a comment:

  • Spongeocto4
    OBJECTION!

  • Spongeocto4
    replied
    First off, Chapek still hasn't hired a linguistics coach. He just said "...really on a real-time basis..." Wot...

    Or this (I dare you to read it in the voice of Jeff Goldblum):

    ...things like Genie either the free part of Genie, the complementary, if you will, part of Genie that's going to improve everyone's visit to our parks and ensure that they minimize wait times and maximize the fun, if you will.
    Regarding the OPs original query, I thinking he's basically bragging that the new reservation system is financially better, because they are c̶o̶n̶t̶r̶o̶l̶l̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶m̶a̶r̶k̶e̶t̶ budgeting the parks more accurately.

    Leave a comment:

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