Kaleido Park - HKDR 2nd phase land development

[Asa]

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/2172168/hong-kongs-first-european-style-floral-garden-moves?fbclid=IwAR233WVTY0AtqiY6BUH_mqDW08UETQdObmVVC3f5_f1i8o9h1DDY0eklE60

The company behind the project, Kaleido Park, on Wednesday said it had submitted proposals to the government to develop about 11 hectares of the 60-hectare idle plot into a Dutch-designed garden and an exhibition centre as a new pop-up tourism initiative on the island. The land has been earmarked for the second phase of Hong Kong Disneyland’s expansion.

Under the plan, the tourist attraction would remain in place for five years, until 2024. Alan Fang Yan-kit, managing director at Kaleido Park, said the privately funded project would cost “a low nine-figure sum” or more than HK$100 million, and was expected to draw up to 1.5 million visitors per year after the park became fully operational.

Other than the 8.3-hectare floral park, which would include dining facilities, an exhibition site named Kaleido X would feature educational and entertaining shows to attract visitors.

The company hoped to open the first phrase of the project by late next year and bring the rest into service in 2020.

Under the proposal, the project would only be open to the public from October to May annually, when flowers were in season. Tickets were expected to cost from HK$120 to HK$230, with discounts for children and seniors.

Fang expected the garden to attract 1 million to 1.5 million people each year after the site was in full service, with a mix of 40 per cent locals and the rest tourists.

[Asa]

So if Kaleido Park is only fully open from 2020, then its lease means it will close by 2024. It will only have a 4 year life span. Maybe that's enough time for the operator to turn a profit.

Will Disney begin second phase construction by then? 2023 is the year when the Avengers ride is set to open and that will also be the end of the current expansion plan. Quite likely by that same year or before WDC will come up with a new development plan for the resort. At the very least they should have some idea what to do for the 20th anniversary of the park in 2025.

[hakjie11]

I guess it will all depend on whether HKDL would reach their own targets and projected revenue by then. They can still exercise their automatic right to extend for a further 5 years and a conditional right for another 5 years, they are certainly not in a rush to make investments that wouldn't make any business sense.

With the bridge and high speed train up and running and the expansions completed by 2023, the attendance figures of 2024 will be a good indication of HKDL's full potential. But given the time needed to discuss any further expansions btwn WDC and HK gov, the figures need to beat all their projections around or before 2023 already to make it on time for any detailed park expansion announcement on the 20th anniversary in 2025.

In a negative scenario :
Let's say that if the figures aren't that positive by 2023 then HKDL would probably prepare to exercise its first automatic 5 years extension which would probably also lead to at least a few years extension for the Dutch Park as they will need to be informed well in advance whether they need to demolish/clean up the space by 2024.
Also HKDL and HK gov previously criticized of letting such valuable space unused for many years will want to avoid kicking their temporary Flower Park operator out too soon.
With HKDL having 10 years extension time to play with and still some available lands to develop in Gate1, their next expansions could still be within the 1st Gate instead of the 2nd Gate. I actually think that might make more sense for HKDL and postpone the decision the build 2nd Gate until they "have to" by contract.
This is also the cheapest and safest way to drive up the lacking traffic without needing to invest billions again with no sight of earning it back rapidly, yet keeping HK citizens and Gov busy and satisfied.

It certainly doesn't make sense to build an entire new park if the full potential of HKDL is not as good as expected.
With the latest HKDL expansions valued over a billion already, an entire new park in its First Phase alone would costs at least twice if not triple with the ongoing inflated construction prices.
WDC will certainly want to explore other possibilities in maybe other regions or countries before shelving out billions again in HK, it is after all still business for the Mouse.

In a positive scenario :
My best guess would be that 2023 is only a critical year for positive decision "internally" that might lead to any public announcement in 2025 and add another 3-5 years if something is going to build, we all know how slow they are. So let's say earliest 2028 opening of "something" (if all goes well)? (Yup, 10 years from now)

[Asa]

HKDL announced the current expansion plan near the end of 2016, before the opening of Iron Man Experience. So the actual attendance figures for Iron Man Experience was inconsequential to the expansion plan.

I seriously doubt they will wait for the figures after Avengers ride opens to prepare for the 20th Anniversary plans.

[hakjie11]

Good point, but I personally think those expansions plans were because of :

-They had 3 major infrastructure (bridge, high speed train and 3rd runway) to look forward to which could potentially drive up Park visitors.
2 of them are already up and running, so the positive effect of the infrastructure completion can now be measured with every marketing step or new ride opening.With the Airport's 3rd runway scheduled to be completed by 2024, there are no other tourist traffic infrastructure to look forward to after 2025).

-The expansions were only presented because the WDC were counting on the HK gov to pay for half of it.
( If the last round of Gov funding were not approved I doubt WDC would come up with the whole investment themselves. The sentiment of the HK people has changed, so no money from HK gov for any future expansions plans.)

Besides "overly" positive attendance and revenue figures I just can't see what could potentially drive another "major" round of expansions after the current one.(As we all know HKDL has been making more loss then profit since opening, I think a few years of profit would be the bare minimum to convince everyone to re-invest again in the park)
As for 20th Anniversary, HKDL can always come up with a cheap 20th Anniversary celebration of some sort or announce just 1 new ( or re-imagined) ride just to keep everyone happy.

Anyway I really hope we can get a major 2nd Gate park soon, preferably before I retire.
A lot of exclusive Fox Ip's I am looking forward to to be converted by imagineers into a ride experience.
Btw if all goes well the Disney-Fox deal will be completed by February 2019. I hope the China-US trade war doesn't affect it.

[Asa]

A video showing the concept model of the Kaleido Park.

[hakjie11]

Really nice, much bigger then I expected

[ree523]

The plan, I hope it is more than repetitive botanical mazes and have more entertainment to do there.

[Asa]

Anyway I really hope we can get a major 2nd Gate park soon, preferably before I retire.
A lot of exclusive Fox Ip's I am looking forward to to be converted by imagineers into a ride experience.
Btw if all goes well the Disney-Fox deal will be completed by February 2019. I hope the China-US trade war doesn't affect it.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fox-disney-genting-malaysia/disney-fox-sued-in-us-for-1-billion-over-malaysia-theme-park-idUSKCN1NV2NP

Disney and Fox are reportedly pulling out of the 20th Century Fox theme park development in Malaysia. Genting are seriously exasperated cos they have invested $750m into the project.

So if Disney and Fox do pull out of this thing, then the designs could in theory be re-used for HKDR's second gate. But don't get your hopes up and actually I will be disappointed because I want Star Wars Land and Cars Land and Avatar Land in HKDR second gate.

[hakjie11]

Pulling out of the Malaysia park deal is probably the better long term strategy for Disney. The Marvel IP-Universal Studio's issue was already quite confusing for Disney in terms of marketing even today.
Disney is for sure not allowing their newly acquired multi billion IP's to be used in a Non-Disney Park in its current contractual conditions, Fox also put the Dubai Fox Park indefinite on hold since April this year.

[hakjie11]

...But don't get your hopes up and actually I will be disappointed because I want Star Wars Land and Cars Land and Avatar Land in HKDR second gate.

All 3 equally attractive and impressive, although I am not sure IF we ever get Star Wars Land would we get a similar massive land like the US parks?
I kinda think we would only get a smaller version of it like the one in Paris and I would say Europeans are so much more into Star Wars compared to Asians and yet they still only get a smaller version of Star Wars Land. Maybe the large piece of land below Grizzly Gulch is already large enough for a HK version of it? Paris and Hong Kong already shared the Frozen land designs so maybe they will share other stuff.

[robbiem]

I think the issues with Hong Kong are twofold. With only one park and no ‘downtown’ style district the resort doesn’t have the same draw as the other resorts. To correct this and build out the resort so it can complete with other attractions will cost serious investment which in turn makes the resort even less profitable in the shorter to medium term. Having the local government as a partner also complicates things as it makes investment decisions more complex.

What i would love to see would be a Paris style approach where WDC takes full control and puts a real investment plan in place, but im not sure how realistic this is. Something along the lines of:

add a downtown area with shopping, restaurants and other entertainment to keep people in the resort area after visitng Disneyland or kaliedo park and encourage more hotel stays. This could also include some smaller paid attractions (escape rooms etc), show space (marvel arena show and/or theatre) etc

Design a second gate which can be opened in phases as demand increases. This could be lower priced than Disneyland or maybe a boutique experience with a higher cost - Open the inital phases with kaliedo park still in place - this could make the resort more appealing and encourage more/longer stays

when demand is there expand the second gate scross the kaliedo park space in a similar way to the large tokyo expansion currently underway, or alternatively add a second boutique park

as demand hopefully grows add hotel space in the vacant plots, if you went with the boutique park concept add a star wars hotel type experience

[mclubber]

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...o9h1DDY0eklE60

The company behind the project, Kaleido Park, on Wednesday said it had submitted proposals to the government to develop about 11 hectares of the 60-hectare idle plot into a Dutch-designed garden and an exhibition centre as a new pop-up tourism initiative on the island. The land has been earmarked for the second phase of Hong Kong Disneyland’s expansion.

Under the plan, the tourist attraction would remain in place for five years, until 2024. Alan Fang Yan-kit, managing director at Kaleido Park, said the privately funded project would cost “a low nine-figure sum” or more than HK$100 million, and was expected to draw up to 1.5 million visitors per year after the park became fully operational.

Other than the 8.3-hectare floral park, which would include dining facilities, an exhibition site named Kaleido X would feature educational and entertaining shows to attract visitors.

The company hoped to open the first phrase of the project by late next year and bring the rest into service in 2020.

Under the proposal, the project would only be open to the public from October to May annually, when flowers were in season. Tickets were expected to cost from HK$120 to HK$230, with discounts for children and seniors.

Fang expected the garden to attract 1 million to 1.5 million people each year after the site was in full service, with a mix of 40 per cent locals and the rest tourists.

This park is now been cancelled. SCMP reported that no garden park no more. The government may try to ask Disney to use Phase 2 for temporarily housing still that land is sitting there not in use.

[Asa]

I can understand the people who wants to use the second phase land for temporary housing, but I wonder who would want to move and live there? There are no supermarkets, no schools and no real facilities of any kind. It also costs an outrageous $15.3 to travel to Tsing Yi or Tung Chung, the nearest towns, by MTR. That is more than what I pay to go to work AND return everyday.

[hakjie11]

I think this is the right response from the HK government at this moment of turbulence. We all know Disney is going the drag on as long as they are contractual allowed.
It will put pressure on Disney to make a decision sooner on whether it is still interested in the 2nd plot of land for future expansion.
If they are, which I hope they do, they will come up with a proposal sooner and if they aren't then at least the land can be used for something else.
If they do agree on temporary housing, then you know they have no expansions plans for a very long time.

[Asa]

I think this is the right response from the HK government at this moment of turbulence. We all know Disney is going the drag on as long as they are contractual allowed.
It will put pressure on Disney to make a decision sooner on whether it is still interested in the 2nd plot of land for future expansion.
If they are, which I hope they do, they will come up with a proposal sooner and if they aren't then at least the land can be used for something else.
If they do agree on temporary housing, then you know they have no expansions plans for a very long time.

First of all I am not sure WDC is in a position to drag as a minor shareholder as opposed to the HK govt. I'd think now they are put under HK govt pressure they have very little say in this matter. The govt can argue that there are temporary housing structures that can be placed in the second phase land and removable when the land lease is up.

Obviously WDC has no plans for the second phase land at least not until 2023 when the Avengers E ticket opens in HKDL. That's 3-4 years from now. 3-4 years is a long time for people in subdivided units, although I still think HKDL is a poor location for under-privileged people to live in. There are no grocery stores or schools or public parks (Inspiration Lake is a very long walk away).

WDC better make sure the Arendelle and Avengers E ticket are huge successes and draws in huge crowds, unlike Iron Man, Moana and Ant-Man, all of which underwhelmed, otherwise the second phase land could be gone for good. In fact if HKDL keeps adding old rides like Iron Man and Ant-Man, I don't see why WDC should be allowed to develop a second gate.

[hakjie11]

Media is working on it already :

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion...ong-disneyland

Btw I actually think Iron Man wasn't such a bad ride. The exhibition/queuing was nicely done and the ride itself was not impressive but let's say ok (hey it's Iron Man and its in HK).
Ant Man was undoubtedly a waste of money. Not 1 moving piece in the entire ride besides the big rotating hot air fan. It was 2019 and how many moving pieces in "It's a small world" which opened in 2008?
Moana...I just walk past it every time like it didnt exist.

I think Disney wants to see the full effect after the whole expansion is completed, so it will be 1-2 years "after" the completion of the 2023 Marvel ride before they might announce something (IF they). So we are looking realistically at the 2nd extension period of 5 years (which is the very very last 5 years extension right on this plot of land) until "maybe" something will be announced.

If they do agree on temporary housing, I think they also will build temporary facilities with it e.g. shops. But let's say it won't look good.

[Asa]

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...s-needy-may-be

Property giant Henderson Land Development agreed to lease out a residential site, likely to be in the New Territories, to the Hong Kong Council of Social Service (HKCSS), an NGO, for a token fee of HK$1 for the group’s new transitional social housing project, sources said.

Some 80 to 90 prefabricated modular housing units could provide temporary homes for the city’s less fortunate.

“By using some modular units, [and putting them together like Lego], we can build the houses in a relatively short period of time,” HKCSS chief executive Chua Hoi-wai said on Saturday. He spoke at a Commission on Poverty conference, a government summit exploring issues regarding the poor and social housing.

“We hope that we can use some unutilised land or sites for a certain period of time and then after returning the land to the developer or the government, move these modular units to another site so that we can recycle the units,” Chua explained. “We can save money and be more environmentally friendly.”

Even property giant like Henderson Land is lending its land, so HKDR has little excuse. But I want to reinstate that the housing is not expected to be permanent. The units are removable when other land becomes available.